2008 draft

I think the lack of transfer agreement will scare off the Lightning more than their history with Alexeev and Svitov, but even still, those were in the Grand ol' Days of Dudley when feng shui reigned and if you were Russian you had a 80% chance of being drafted here.

If the Lightning end up picking third in the draft, therefore having no shot at Stamkos or Doughty, AND they don't want to trade down AND they're scared off by Beach's character issues AND they want to swing for the fences (something I don't think they'll do with their first pick - just mid picks)... then they may take him - but only if they have some kind of inside info that he'll come over.

Of course they were fairly confident Harju would make the trek last year and he changed his mind - a little different situation though.

While the Lightning have had bad luck with Alexeev and Svitov (at least Svitov was dealt before he completely disappeared), I don't think it's fair to paint all Russians with that brush. Filatov may take a year or two to get over, though, and you'd like for a top-3 pick - if an offensive player - to have a hint of immediate impact.