Lightning Acquire Shane O'Brien

The Lightning have acquired a 3rd round pick and defenseman Shane O'Brien from Anahiem for goaltender Gerald Coleman and a first round pick according to TSN.ca
link: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=197501&hubname=nhl

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The Fallout

You can make an argument that O'Brien merely will replace Sarich who will leave via free agency this summer and nothing has necessarily changed roster wise...

BUT

The Lightning just acquired a 23 year old physical defenseman. They have three physical stay-at-home defensemen sitting in Springfield and another coming through the pipeline in junior. Shane O'Brien's acquisition still leaves quite a bit of cap room as he only makes a very modest 495K this season. Put 2+2 together and Feaster has the assets and the cap room to possibly move a defenseman prospect and another pick to go out and get a scoring line winger. Certainly in this trade market wingers are going to cost a lot less than defensemen who are in ridiculously short supply.

If Feaster could Jedi mind trick Lowe into giving him Lupul cheaply, he'd be my hero.

I would of liked them to get

I would of liked them to get Berard myself. Figure what they offered for O'Brien could of landed him (less the 3rd round pick).

Well, actually, Berard

Well, actually, Berard could've been had for very little because he is a UFA this summer. Acquiring O'Brien is a longer term addition to the team.

They really do need another forward now, and I think they need a scorer more than a checking liner.

25th-30th pick?

I find that giving up a first round pick as well as Coleman is a little steep. Feaster may have gotten away with replacing the first with a second since a player chosen at around 25-30 would have similar projections as one taken 55-60. (actually, after reading some of the comments on "spector's" blog, I could see why Burke would want a first round pick since he traded his 07 pick away). On the other hand, I do like O'Brien as a Sarich/Pratt replacement and the likelihood of one of Smaby, D. O'Brien, or Rogers making the team out of camp next year to round out the D Corps.

Conditional 3rd, increased responsibility

Erlendsson, in the Trib (bolts.tbo.com) says it's a conditional third.

I know O'Brien had a good start to the year, and he is just a rookie, but what "worries" me in thinking he can be a key cog in the playoff run is that he's been hidden in ANA away from top players. If you've got Pronger and Niedermeyer, why wouldn't you want to play them against the top players, though?

However, I know Pronger missed about 10 games (9 upon checking) in January and O'Brien got more ice time. Why do I know this? Because he was briefly a member of my fantasy team thinking he'd get some PP time, etc... but that's another story.

So, here is his performance during Pronger's absence. The four games prior to Pronger's injury, which happened around Christmas, O'Brien was starting to top 20 minutes.

Nine games without Pronger: (All times rounded up or down)

L 2-1 DET
22 Min, 0 points, -1

L 4-3 CLB
22 Min, 0P, -3

W 4-2 DET
15 Min, 0P, E

L 5-4 NAS
11 Min, 1A, E

W 5-1 DAL
23 Min, 0P, +1

L 3-2 COL (SO)
23 Min, 0P, E

L 6-2 STL
21 Min, 0P, E

L 4-1 EDM
21 Min, 0P, -2

L 3-2 CAL
16 Min, 0P, -2

So... 1 assist and minus-7 during those 9 games.

He averages 14 Min per game for the year, which is not unexpected for a rookie, however, IMO, if you're spending a 1st for this guy, he'd better be capable of top-4 minutes.

Also, if they truly like his puck-moving ability, you'd expect him to get more than 1 of 9 games on the positive side of Even. I know that's a skewed stat, so take from that what you will.

His last 10 games (minutes rounded, starting with the last game):

13, 6, 13, 10, 13, 14, 8, 11, 15, 16

Although he has 14 points, he has only 3 points in his last 38 games (since U.S. Thanksgiving).

The Timing

If Jay pulled this deal between the end of the season and the draft I would generally be okay with it, including the 1st. A guy already performing in the NHL and with at least 2nd pair potential is probably the equivalent of a late 1st and the guesswork of whether he can actually make it or not is gone. Now it's just a matter of will he realize his peak potential. Coleman, with our system's relative strength in goal, is just what he was - trade bait. Even though O'Brien an 8th, he's apparently an NHL keeper. Coleman, who's a 7th with no real shot than being higher than the 3 or 4 guy in our chain is fetching perhaps as high as a 3rd. I'd call that a relatively even deal with two GM's playing their particular hunches.

O'Brien is actually tied for 3rd on the Ducks in points by a D'man. He's also tied for 3rd in +/- at +6 (only 4 have plusses). He leads the team in penalty minutes (leads our leader, Roy, by about 45 minutes) and apparently in fights. Looking at some opinions from Duck fans, he's popular and well-liked so likely he'll fit in our room. They also mentioned him for his 2 way potential and his ability to be as high as a 2nd pair guy.

O'Brien's a young hitter, perhaps like Sarich who in a playoff run is going to have to learn how to hit less and poke check more. He has to learn to play with a new partner and communicate with different goalies. No matter the ability of our D' corps one advantage the have at this stage in the season is that they know each other well and that in itself improves their overall play. I think it can be ugly trying to adjust this kid's game in the playoff race at this point in the season.

The timing of this and the indication he is going to play suggests that a couple of guys are dinged to the point of hurting their play and that Tort's has absolutely no faith in Richardson to fill in.

Short term, I'm not sure. Long term, I think Jay did OK.

Janik Scares Me

I think maybe the Lightning realize you don't want Doug Janik out there taking regular shifts night in and night out for you at playoff time.

I might be the only one, but of all the Lightning's defensemen Janik is the one guy who gives me a panic attack every time I see him out on a shift. Not that he's terrible, mind you, but he's just not a guy who handles being forechecked well and who tends to make that blind clear up the boards that always gets cut off by the point man and ends up in the team getting hemmed in.

If O'Brien can play well enough to put Janik in the pressbox and cut some of Sarich and Pratt's ice time down, I'm all for it.

I don't notice Janik much.

I was pondering Janik during the Atlanta game. I don't notice him standing out for the blind passes around the board because with the exception of Boyle, the rest of the D corps all drive me crazy doing that.

I'm like you though. I don't notice him being wicked bad. I also, as I was thinking the other night, don't notice him doing anything that amounts to an overly positive contribution either. I think Pratt/Sarich is a delicate combo that works to an extent much more than breaking them up and putting O'Brien with one of them. Janik's spot is the logical one as Kuba would likely be best to break him in.

This deal threw me at first.

This deal threw me at first. I think once the initial shock of seeing a first rounder going the other way wears off, it's not too bad of a deal.

Coleman was probably never going to see any real NHL time behind guys like Ramo and Boutin, or even Koshechkin and Helenius if it comes down to it. In my eyes, this trade evens out to a late first rounder in a questionable draft and someone who would never see more than a cup of coffee in Tampa for a 3rd rounder and a potential top 4 guy. Not bad when you break it down.

I believe the ball is in the court of the Tampa staff now. Like I said on HF, if they turn O'Brien into a typical Lightning Dman (stickchecking, no hitting, no toughness) then I think we really lose this deal. If he's allowed to play mean and tough, and hard, then I think this is a really nice deal.

I agree that the initial

I agree that the initial shock of seeing a 1st round pick being dealt away takes a minute to overcome. After sitting back and looking at this deal I'm not too worried about it. I have been impressed with O'Brian this year and do think that he'll be a valuable asset to the organization more so in the years to come as he matures in the league. I'm very interested to see him out there for the Bolts and see how he handles himself in this new system. I think overall the defensive corps the lightning have is fairly decent, except for Pratt, he's the one that makes me cringe whenever he has the puck. With O'Brians acquisition and the young D men that are already in the organization, the backline looks pretty promising for the Bolt's future. With S.O'Brian, Ranger, Smaby, Rogers, and Mihalik...I'm looking forward to seeing the Bolt's blueline strength for years to come. Also, Coleman had been falling on the depth chart in goal within the organization and really didn't have a shot at seeing nhl time with the bolts behind all the depth the organization has now. I think they were fortunate to get a 3rd round pick out of it for him.

Burke wanted Coleman

Quote:
Coleman, 21, has split time with Springfield, Mass., of the American Hockey League and Johnstown, Md., of the East Coast Hockey League.

"We wouldn't have made this deal without him," Burke said of Coleman.
--LATimes.com

Burke wanted the No.1 to "get in the card game" for guys like Tkachuk and Guerin.

(When did Johnstown move to Maryland???)

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-duckrep25feb25,1,2017757.story?coll=...

Good for Gerald. My guess

Good for Gerald. My guess is the next move they make would be possibly moving Bryzgalov or Giguere and who knows if they can resign Giggy in the offseason. Caron would move up and Coleman would be in the AHL. With the exception of Wall and McKee all of their other goalies are free agents this year as well. He may have a shot there whereas he doesnt here with Ramo in the wings.

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