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  #21  
Old 03-07-2018, 10:14 AM
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Bolthed Bolthed is offline
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I don't see how we should really have high hopes for winning the Cup or playing for it or maybe even playing in the Eastern Conference Final. I don't know about y'all, but I've downgraded my hopes and certainly my expectations, because we just aren't and can't seem to play postseason hockey. I'm not giving up, but I cannot logically put all realistic hope in the return of one defenseman and one very good two-way forward, who might maybe possibly get one or two regular season games to shake off the rust before the playoffs begin. If I'm in a playoff pool I ain't buyin the Lightning. A finesse offensive team hasn't skated and scored their way to a Cup since the Edmonton Oilers in the 80s! This regular season has been a blast, but I'm buckled up for disappointment.
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  #22  
Old 03-07-2018, 10:45 AM
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how did Stralman deliberately miss the net to make Point the hero again??? Stralman was looking at some gape that must have been over half the net open. How we get to being 5 on 5 dominant is up to Coop, his cupboard is stocked and he has to mix the right ingredients.

Disagree with anything that argues for Sustr being on ice. The Mad Stork can stop any momentum and put panic in the audience. A good outlet pass? when, where and how?Sustr. Dotch, and Slater all sucking compared to expectations and Coburn is circling the drain. I wish one of them were Carle worthy and in the end Matt was worse than awful.

I am afraid we traded for damaged goods and if so,, might as well as doubled down with Greene. Time is truly now.

Playoffs are always 5 on 5, well qualify that since we are now the penalty waiting to happen for us while the refs see only those against us. Were they not also screwing the icing calls up last night. I only heard the game, saw nothing which means I've got Espo slant only.

A reward for the President's Cup should be getting McCauley or Sutherland more often than not.
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  #23  
Old 03-07-2018, 11:27 AM
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Playing the Panturds in the first round scares me, we never match up well with them...
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  #24  
Old 03-07-2018, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bolts37205 View Post
how did Stralman deliberately miss the net to make Point the hero again??? Stralman was looking at some gape that must have been over half the net open. How we get to being 5 on 5 dominant is up to Coop, his cupboard is stocked and he has to mix the right ingredients.

Disagree with anything that argues for Sustr being on ice. The Mad Stork can stop any momentum and put panic in the audience. A good outlet pass? when, where and how?Sustr. Dotch, and Slater all sucking compared to expectations and Coburn is circling the drain. I wish one of them were Carle worthy and in the end Matt was worse than awful.

I am afraid we traded for damaged goods and if so,, might as well as doubled down with Greene. Time is truly now.

Playoffs are always 5 on 5, well qualify that since we are now the penalty waiting to happen for us while the refs see only those against us. Were they not also screwing the icing calls up last night. I only heard the game, saw nothing which means I've got Espo slant only.

A reward for the President's Cup should be getting McCauley or Sutherland more often than not.

Don't think McDonagh is damaged at all. I think we want him 100% or more as he is going to be needed come mid April.

Will also be very interesting when Palat returns.
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  #25  
Old 03-07-2018, 12:14 PM
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ZeykShade ZeykShade is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
Let me try.

Right now the Lightning have 1 solid defensive pair. Hedman. Hedman / Girardi and Hedman / Stralman. They know that Girardi is most effective when he plays less than 16 minutes and Hedman is going go play 25 minutes so they rotate Stralman in with him. Our worst regular right now is Sergachev. He’s beyond hitting the wall, he’s crashed and burned. He can only be out there when Stralman is on the ice and because Stralman is rotating in with Hedman to cover for Girardi, his minutes are limited.
By what metrics are you judging Sergachev as our "Worst Regular"? 53.8 CF%, 53.2FF% with highly sheltered OffZoneStart% of 69.9%. He's being utilized how he should be as a young guy trying to learn the NHL.

Second most sheltered D? Anton Stralman with 55% offensive zone starts with 50.6CF%, 49.3FF%. Sergachev has the highest FF%Rel at 3.3, Stralman's is -2.3 and Coburn brings up the ass at -3.8.

Coburn is the weakest link on his pairing and he and Sustr are used for Defensive Zone Starts the highest on the team. Understandable considering they have the least offensive upside.

The onIceShot% and onIceSV% numbers are nice to look at as well. They show that Sergachev is right in line with the rest of the D for save%.

The advanced stats don't tell the whole picture, but you can see how pairings are utilized and 55/62 are being used as a DZone Shutdown pairing and they are bad at it, with Sustr being better than Coburn and Dotchin being better than Sustr.
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Last edited by ZeykShade; 03-07-2018 at 12:17 PM.
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  #26  
Old 03-07-2018, 12:46 PM
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Zeyk love those stats. One other one to look at is how often Sustr and/or Coburn are on the ice for the face off after a goal is scored by either team. The number will be high I bet. That's why I really see Girardi or Sergachev being the odd play out when McDonaugh returns and not 62 or 55.
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  #27  
Old 03-07-2018, 01:19 PM
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I would love to see your advance statistics broken down in 20 game segments. Sergachev started out very strong. I suspect that those statistics are for the entire year and are disguising his recent play, which has not been good.

And by worst, I mean his play of late - heís still trying moves that may work in juniors that are leading to turnovers at the most in opportune time. I also believe that at age 23, we will be elated that Yzerman didnít trade him.

Again, management attempted to address the situation. I would have liked them to try and add Green (and they might have, but the asking price was too high).
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  #28  
Old 03-07-2018, 01:46 PM
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So you'd like a statistical sample to be broken down into smaller sample sizes? That's a recipe for inaccuracy and lower predictive value.

19yo offensive rookie Defenseman being used as a sheltered shot generator is not our problem. He's not expected to be a defensive stalwart and his utilization demonstrates this. He has clearly hit a wall.

The problem is Coburn and Sustr, but mainly Coburn. He's assigned a role as a shutdown stabilizing veteran Defenseman who averages more TOI than Sergachev. In his 14min AvgTOI, he's a remarkable liability for his assigned role. That's a problem. I'm not saying that Sergachev would do a better job as the Shutdown LHD paired with Sustr for 14min a night. I'm saying that in their roles, as dictated by Bowness/Cooper, Coburn is failing harder than Sergachev is. Also, Coburn's Advanced stats are for the entire year as well. The comparison is valid across the same time frame. Coburn has been bad all year. Sergachev hit a rookie wall, but was pretty damned stellar until January.
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Last edited by ZeykShade; 03-07-2018 at 01:49 PM.
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  #29  
Old 03-07-2018, 02:09 PM
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I donít understand where you are disagreeing with anything that I have said. Sergachev had an outstanding start, has hit a wall and is not playing nearly as well defensively. You are looking at these statistics as a predicictive tool, I agree, in the long run, Sergachev will be the better defenseman.

Iím looking at the here and now. Given what we have, Sergachev is our, whatever term you want to use, least effective defenseman. His minutes need to be limited and he needs to be put in situations where he can succeed. Exactly what you said.

That brings you back to today. Right now, we have 1 quality defensive pair - Hedman. That places Coburn as your best (least worse) alternative. Again, as you said, you donít want to put Sergachev into that role. Management addressed the situation by making the trade.

Where do you disagree with what I have said?
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  #30  
Old 03-07-2018, 02:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeykShade View Post
So you'd like a statistical sample to be broken down into smaller sample sizes? That's a recipe for inaccuracy and lower predictive value.
No it is not. It would show if the players are having a decline or not. It is nothing more than a snap shot of the current time.

Or it would be nothing more than a line graph showing the ups and downs over the season.

That is all he is asking, and I think he is right on this.

You just have to show more than throwing out a stat.

I wouldn't even be surprised that if you look at the game where Sergachev had a career high of just over 22 minutes, or something close to that, he started his decline.

Last edited by WaiverWire; 03-07-2018 at 02:14 PM.
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