BoltProspects Community Forums  

Go Back   BoltProspects Community Forums > Miscellaneous > The Room

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:14 PM
The Great Zo's Avatar
The Great Zo The Great Zo is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Wilmington, OH
Posts: 6,051
Default 2018 Midterm Election Predictions

Pete's idea from the News thread. Only do this if you're really bored. Get your picks in by whenever. OK, let's say 6PM election day. Winner gets an all-expenses paid trip to Norway.

Links are to 538's classic forecasts.

US HOUSE
* Currently 193D-235R (R+42) with 7 vacant seats
* Democrats need a gain of 23 seats to get the majority
* Predict the D gain

US SENATE (lean/likely/toss-up)
AZ: Sinema (D) vs. McSally (R) (538: lean D)
FL: Nelson (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: lean D)
IN: Donnelly (D) vs. Braun (R) (538: lean D)
MN: Smith (D) vs. Housley (R) (538: likely D)
MO: McCaskill (D) vs. Hawley (R) (538: toss-up)
MS: Espy (D) vs. Hyde-Smith (R) (538: likely R)
MT: Tester (D) vs. Rosendale (R) (538: likely D)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs. Cramer (R) (538: lean R)
NJ: Menendez (D) vs. Hugin (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Rosen (D) vs. Heller (R) (538: toss-up)
TN: Bredesen (D) vs. Blackburn (R) (538: likely R)
TX: O'Rourke (D) vs. Cruz (R) (538: likely R)
WV: Manchin (D) vs. Morrisey (R) (538: likely D)

GOVERNORS (lean/likely/toss-up)
AK: Begich (D) vs. Dunleavy (R) (538: lean R)
CO: Polis (D) vs. Stapleton (R) (538: likely D)
CT: Lamont (D) vs. Stefanowski (R) (538: likely D)
FL: Gillum (D) vs. DeSantis (R) (538: likely D)
GA: Abrams (D) vs. Kemp (R) (538: lean R)
IL: Pritzker (D) vs. Rauner (R) (538: likely D)
IA: Hubbell (D) vs. Reynolds (R) (538: toss-up)
KS: Kelly (D) vs. Kobach (R) (538: toss-up)
ME: Mills (D) vs. Moody (R) (538: likely D)
MI: Whitmer (D) vs. Schuette (R) (538: likely D)
MN: Walz (D) vs. Johnson (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Sisolak (D) vs. Laxalt (R) (538: toss-up)
NH: Kelly (D) vs. Sununu (R) (538: likely R)
NM: Grisham (D) vs. Pearce (R) (538: likely D)
OH: Cordray (D) vs. DeWine (R) (538: toss-up)
OK: Edmondson (D) vs. Stitt (R) (538: likely R)
OR: Brown (D) vs. Buehler (D) (538: likely D)
SD: Sutton (D) vs. Noem (R) (538: lean R)
VT: Hallquist (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: likely R)
WI: Evers (D) vs. Walker (R) (538: lean D)

Scoring:
House: 50 points if exactly right, minus 5 points for each house seat off
Senate: 3 points per correct prediction
Governor: 2 points per correct prediction
* Double score for toss-ups. Triple score if you go against a "likely" and get it right.

Based on recounts and runoffs and whatever, I may not score this until 2019.

Last edited by The Great Zo; 11-05-2018 at 05:19 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:19 PM
The Great Zo's Avatar
The Great Zo The Great Zo is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Wilmington, OH
Posts: 6,051
Default

House:
D+32

Senate:
Sinema
Nelson
Donnelly
Smith
Hawley
Hyde-Smith
Tester
Cramer
Menendez
Rosen
Blackburn
Cruz
Manchin

Governor:
Begich
Polis
Lamont
Gillum
Kemp
Pritzker
Reynolds
Kelly
Mills
Whitmer
Walz
Sisolak
Sununu
Grisham
Cordray
Stitt
Borwn
Noem
Scott
Evers
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:26 PM
jdhebner's Avatar
jdhebner jdhebner is offline
Snoozin' Zyuzin (aka Suddenly Susan)
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Ridgecrest
Posts: 1,101
Default

b]House:[/b]
D+29

Senate:
Sinema
Nelson
Donnelly
Smith
McCaskill
Hyde-Smith
Tester
Cramer
Menendez
Rosen
Blackburn
O'Rourke
Manchin

Governor:
Begich
Polis
Lamont
Gillum
Kemp
Pritzker
Reynolds
Kelly
Mills
Whitmer
Walz
Sisolak
Sununu
Grisham
Cordray
Stitt
Borwn
Noem
Hallquist
Evers
__________________
"To Serve Man" It's a Cookbook!
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-05-2018, 06:16 PM
BurnTHalO's Avatar
BurnTHalO BurnTHalO is offline
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Marietta, OH
Posts: 7,481
Default

House + 24


US SENATE (lean/likely/toss-up)
AZ: Sinema (D) vs. McSally (R) (538: lean D)
FL: Nelson (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: lean D)
IN: Donnelly (D) vs. Braun (R) (538: lean D)
MN: Smith (D) vs. Housley (R) (538: likely D)
MO: McCaskill (D) vs. Hawley (R) (538: toss-up)
MS: Espy (D) vs. Hyde-Smith (R) (538: likely R)
MT: Tester (D) vs. Rosendale (R) (538: likely D)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs. Cramer (R) (538: lean R)
NJ: Menendez (D) vs. Hugin (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Rosen (D) vs. Heller (R) (538: toss-up)
TN: Bredesen (D) vs. Blackburn (R) (538: likely R)
TX: O'Rourke (D) vs. Cruz (R) (538: likely R)
WV: Manchin (D) vs. Morrisey (R) (538: likely D)

GOVERNORS (lean/likely/toss-up)
AK: Begich (D) vs. Dunleavy (R) (538: lean R)
CO: Polis (D) vs. Stapleton (R) (538: likely D)
CT: Lamont (D) vs. Stefanowski (R) (538: likely D)
FL: Gillum (D) vs. DeSantis (R) (538: likely D)
GA: Abrams (D) vs. Kemp (R) (538: lean R)
IL: Pritzker (D) vs. Rauner (R) (538: likely D)
IA: Hubbell (D) vs. Reynolds (R) (538: toss-up)
KS: Kelly (D) vs. Kobach (R) (538: toss-up)
ME: Mills (D) vs. Moody (R) (538: likely D)
MI: Whitmer (D) vs. Schuette (R) (538: likely D)
MN: Walz (D) vs. Johnson (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Sisolak (D) vs. Laxalt (R) (538: toss-up)
NH: Kelly (D) vs. Sununu (R) (538: likely R)
NM: Grisham (D) vs. Pearce (R) (538: likely D)
OH: Cordray (D) vs. DeWine (R) (538: toss-up)
OK: Edmondson (D) vs. Stitt (R) (538: likely R)
OR: Brown (D) vs. Buehler (D) (538: likely D)
SD: Sutton (D) vs. Noem (R) (538: lean R)
VT: Hallquist (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: likely R)
WI: Evers (D) vs. Walker (R) (538: lean D)

Last edited by BurnTHalO; 11-05-2018 at 08:51 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-05-2018, 06:33 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is offline
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,420
Default

House
D+41

Rationale: Nate Silver said he believes the 538 Deluxe model is probably the closest to what will actually happen on election night. It predicts a +36 seat gain for Democrats. However, it's also been said that for every 1% the Democrats overperform the national popular vote estimate they'll pick up another ~5 seats. Hence, 41.

US Senate
AZ: McSally (one of the biggest disappointments of the night)
FL: Nelson (Bill Nelson slips the noose yet again)
IN: Donnelly
MN: Smith
MO: McCaskill (another survivor that slips the noose yet again)
MS: Going to a Run-Off
MT: Tester
ND: Cramer
NJ: Menendez
NV: Rosen (the Reid machine pulls her over the finish line)
TN: Blackburn (will be closer than anyone thinks)
TX: Cruz (will be razor-thin close)
WV: Manchin

At the end of the night it nets out to no change. 51R/49D.

Most stunning part of the above list may be the names that aren't on it. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin walk to re-election when a year ago that was not an outcome anyone would've bet on.

Governor's Mansions
AK: Begich (upset special)
CO: Polis
CT: Lamont (barely)
FL: Gillum
GA: Going to a Run-Off
IL: Pritzker
IA: Hubbell
KS: Kobach (cheats to win)
ME: Mills
MI: Whitmer
MN: Walz
NV: Sisolak (as with Rosen, the Reid machine pulls him over the line)
NH: Sununu
NM: Lujan-Grisham
OH: Cordray
OK: Stitt
OR: Brown
SD: Noem
VT: Scott
WI: Evers (eat it, Scott Walker)

Democrats gain 10 governor's mansions in a pretty stunning wipeout.

And then Jeff Sessions and Rod Rosenstein get fired on Friday...
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29

Last edited by pete; 11-05-2018 at 07:04 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:03 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is offline
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,420
Default

And for the record, I'm just excited to have the chance to compete for the coveted Kazakhstan Union of Journalist's Political Pundit's Cup.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:48 PM
BurnTHalO's Avatar
BurnTHalO BurnTHalO is offline
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Marietta, OH
Posts: 7,481
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pete View Post
And for the record, I'm just excited to have the chance to compete for the coveted Kazakhstan Union of Journalist's Political Pundit's Cup.
Oh God can we please make this the official trophy title?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-05-2018, 07:20 PM
Flycoon Flycoon is offline
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,984
Default

US HOUSE
* Currently 193D-235R (R+42) with 7 vacant seats
* Democrats need a gain of 23 seats to get the majority
* Predict the D gain

D gain 29

US SENATE (lean/likely/toss-up)
AZ: McSally (R) (538: lean D)
FL: Scott (R) (538: lean D)
IN: Donnelly (D) (538: lean D)
MN: Smith (D) (538: likely D)
MO: McCaskill (D) (538: toss-up)
MS: Hyde-Smith (R) (538: likely R)
MT: Tester (D)(538: likely D)
ND: Cramer (R) (538: lean R)
NJ: Menendez (D)(538: likely D)
NV: Heller (R) (538: toss-up)
TN: Blackburn (R) (538: likely R)
TX: Cruz (R) (538: likely R)
WV: Manchin (D) (538: likely D)

GOVERNORS (lean/likely/toss-up)
AK: Begich (D) (538: lean R)
CO: Polis (D) (538: likely D)
CT: Lamont (D) (538: likely D)
FL: DeSantis (R) (538: likely D)
GA: Kemp (R) (538: lean R)
IL: Pritzker (D) (538: likely D)
IA: Reynolds (R) (538: toss-up)
KS: Kobach (R) (538: toss-up)
ME: Mills (D) (538: likely D)
MI: Whitmer (D) (538: likely D)
MN: Walz (D)(538: likely D)
NV: Laxalt (R) (538: toss-up)
NH: Sununu (R) (538: likely R)
NM: Grisham (D) (538: likely D)
OH: Cordray (D) (538: toss-up)
OK: Stitt (R) (538: likely R)
OR: Brown (D) (538: likely D)
SD: Noem (R) (538: lean R)
VT: Hallquist (D) (538: likely R)
WI: Evers (D)(538: lean D)
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2005-2008, BoltProspects.com. All Rights Reserved.