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  #31  
Old 03-07-2008, 09:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sotnos View Post
i don't see where you got that percentage.

the teams are in reverse order of finish, and the lottery winning team moves up 5 spots. that's it, no one else moves up or down

edit: should be 4 places, as team #6 can only move up to 2nd place
I was assuming each team got one more ball than the team below it (this must be wrong)

draft order by record
1 14 balls
2 13 balls
3 12 balls
4 11 balls
5 10 balls
6 9 balls
7 8 balls
8 7 balls
9 6 balls
10 5 balls
11 4 balls
12 3 balls
13 2 balls
14 1 ball

105 balls
14 for lightning
13.3%

Looking at the link from last year the progression of amount of balls must be weighted between different spots. If the number 14 team has a .5 percent chance then there must be 200 balls while the 25% percent chance of the worst team must be 50 balls for the worst team.

Is it possible for a team lower than 5th to win? The percentages from last year appear to indicate that. However your maximum of 4 places seem to indicate only the top 5 can win.

I guess it doesn't really matter since finishing last still makes the team a long-shot to get the first pick.
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  #32  
Old 03-07-2008, 10:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sotnos View Post
it's not 48% though, it's 25% for the worst team
No it would be 48.2%. You have to add in all of the percentages for teams beyond 5, because if they win, the worst team also gets the first pick.
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  #33  
Old 03-07-2008, 10:42 AM
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TIMES mentioned the throatslash. Torts said they'd deal with it internally.

Smith has been excellent so far. You can't ask for much more. I just wonder how much longer he can stand facing all these odd-man rushes. It's okay though, because the pinching Dmen and the go-go-go Lightning are scoring so much. What? They're not? Then why are they still playing like this?

I don't know who should be angrier. Smith for facing more prime scoring chances in 5 games then he did in 2 years in Dallas (obviously not literally) or Ranger for defending 2 on 1s 5x a game - some of his own doing, others from his partner being anywhere but where he's supposed to be.

I'd be interested to go back and watch Boyle during the Cup year. I don't remember him riverboatgambling this much during games. I could be mistaken.

Glad to see Jokinen on the board. Vinny played better with less ice time, IMO.
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  #34  
Old 03-07-2008, 10:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MUDSHARK View Post
Is it possible for a team lower than 5th to win?
all non-playoff teams can win yes, but
Quote:
The percentages from last year appear to indicate that. However your maximum of 4 places seem to indicate only the top 5 can win.
right, they can only move up 4 spots.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
No it would be 48.2%. You have to add in all of the percentages for teams beyond 5, because if they win, the worst team also gets the first pick.
of course, you are right. did i ever mention i failed statistics the first time i took it?

with how unlucky this team has been from the crosby ping pong ball incident on through, i wouldn't be shocked if they finished worst & still didn't pick #1. i believe this team has never won a lottery.
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Originally Posted by chad View Post
TIMES mentioned the throatslash. Torts said they'd deal with it internally.
he got suspended for it before, i think. i wish the league would crack down more on cheapshot artists, personally, but they have a preoccupation with this sort of stuff instead.
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  #35  
Old 03-07-2008, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad View Post
Smith has been excellent so far. You can't ask for much more.
Indeed. Very solid. I can't quantify it and I'm no goalie coach, but there's just something about his play that looks noticeably more solid than his last few predecessors. I'd be very surprised to see him give up any "howlers" as they say. He seems to be a very capable puck handler too, which I can't really remember the Bolts ever having - have they? (Puppa? Tabaracci? ). Don't know how much of a big deal that is, but it just seems like we've never had a goalie that could really play the puck.
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  #36  
Old 03-07-2008, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sotnos View Post
i believe this team has never won a lottery.
If they hadn't, Vinny Lecavalier would be playing for someone else.
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  #37  
Old 03-07-2008, 11:59 AM
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I don't believe they won that lottery... San Jose or Florida did, I think, and TB had the right to switch picks with them based on a previous trade. Kozlov and Marchment were involved somehow.
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  #38  
Old 03-07-2008, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad View Post
I don't believe they won that lottery... San Jose or Florida did, I think, and TB had the right to switch picks with them based on a previous trade. Kozlov and Marchment were involved somehow.
Florida did. Traded it to San Jose. We traded w/San Jose.
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  #39  
Old 03-07-2008, 12:35 PM
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Exactly right. Florida won that lottery, but had traded their pick to SJ for Kozlov. The Bolts traded Marchment to SJ for Nazarov and the right to swap first-round picks, which they ended up doing.

Trivia: Anyone remember the third player in that deal? Not what happened to the No.2 pick, which SJ (Brad Stuart) traded to Nash. (David Legwand), but the other NHLer in the original trade.
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  #40  
Old 03-07-2008, 01:03 PM
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I had to look it up. There were actually 2 more, 1 going to and the other from SJ.
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