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  #1861  
Old 08-06-2020, 07:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoek View Post
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/us/mi...rnd/index.html

Can we just stop this school re-opening madness? Or at least have a plan besides doing things as if they were entirely normal?
That's what our private schools original plan is. They sound like they are changing that, but I have let them know if they don't put a lot of safety measures in we will be home schooling.
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  #1862  
Old 08-06-2020, 09:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoek View Post
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/us/mi...rnd/index.html

Can we just stop this school re-opening madness? Or at least have a plan besides doing things as if they were entirely normal?
Nor the funds or logistics to try and execute a plan. We are supposed to prepare students as if there will be another intermission, but have been told computers are back ordered until next year.

We have 30% of students who opted to stay home, I thought this would make everything work out since I assumed smaller class sizes. Instead, we have to teach these online classes in place of regular periods, and in the madness of trying to create a schedule for this they've squished all of the people who attend into other periods. As a result, we have a massive county wide desk shortage and most teachers don't have the class space to keep kids 6 ft apart. One teacher I talked to has 160 students for 5 periods.

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  #1863  
Old 08-06-2020, 10:03 AM
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I hope in the future these kinds of crimes are punished more harshly than they are now.

Someone snatching a purse or wallet ends up serving more time on average than the rich who steal millions in this way.
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  #1864  
Old 08-06-2020, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaseSpace View Post
I hope in the future these kinds of crimes are punished more harshly than they are now.

Someone snatching a purse or wallet ends up serving more time on average than the rich who steal millions in this way.
Or worse... if you allegedly try to pass a counterfeit $20 bill.
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  #1865  
Old 08-06-2020, 12:03 PM
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Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in national polls, albeit by slightly narrower margins than he did earlier this summer. Less than three months ahead of November's election, polling averages show the presumptive Democratic nominee's advantage dropped roughly 3 points between late June and early August.

The latest figure, released by news site and data aggregator Real Clear Politics (RCP), placed Biden's lead over Trump at 6.4 points as of Thursday. The number averaged national election survey results collected between July 21 and August 5.

One month earlier, RCP's national averages pointed to a 9-point Biden lead, as Trump's approval ratings dropped amid resurgences in coronavirus cases, soaring unemployment and the federal government's response to the Black Lives Matter protests occurring across the country.

https://www.newsweek.com/bidens-lead...verage-1523283
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  #1866  
Old 08-06-2020, 01:28 PM
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I'm not going to panic when Biden's still sitting with a 7.5% lead in 538 and is over 50% and all the higher quality live polling tends to show him with a bigger lead. He's way ahead of where Clinton was at this point in 2016, and all the polls suggest undecideds will probably break to him 2:1.

I've got it at about a 53.6% to 44.3% election if it were held today, once you allocate those undecideds. Give me a minute to update my spreadsheet, and I'll tell you who's winning what states.
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  #1867  
Old 08-06-2020, 01:52 PM
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Yeah, so the way I've got it now, nationally, it looks like a 53.6% to 44.3% election in favor of Biden if it were held today. Biden is running a little over 7.2% ahead of where Clinton was in 2016 in my model.

Biden is safely ahead (> 4%) in the following states (in order from largest to smallest lead): Virginia (+13.6%), Colorado (+12.1%), Maine (+10.2%), Nevada (+9.6%), Minnesota (+8.8%), New Hampshire (+7.6%), Michigan (+7.0%), Pennsylvania (+6.5%), Wisconsin (+6.4%), and Florida (+6.0%). I noticed the state polls, in many cases, are showing Biden running better in the swing states than his national delta from Clinton's numbers in 2016, so out of an abundance of caution I built in a curb in my model to temper the swing state numbers more to the national numbers. In most cases (Virginia, Nevada, and Georgia being the only exceptions) this brings down Biden's margin a little. I added this curb because I though Missouri being inside the MOE was too good to be true. The above states would win Biden the Electoral College.

The following are the current toss ups: Arizona (+3.7%), North Carolina (+3.5%), Georgia (+2.1%), Ohio (-0.9%), Texas (-1.8%), and Iowa (-2.3%).

The only other states in single digits right now are Missouri (-5.5%), South Carolina (-7.0%), and Alaska (-8.0%).

If I do what I call an "approval aligned" calc, which IMO measures the absolute ceiling of what Biden could expect to do if everything went his way and all the people who disapprove of Trump plus the 2/3 of undecideds broke his way, it'd be a 56%-42% election.
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Last edited by pete; 08-06-2020 at 01:57 PM.
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  #1868  
Old 08-06-2020, 01:55 PM
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To my point:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-at-her-peak/
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  #1869  
Old 08-06-2020, 02:07 PM
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This crap of dicking around with the Postal Service has me worried and blood boiling. With Nevada being sued and the USPS being unable to deliver 500K mail in ballots before Nov 3 (?) makes me only hope that the courts will rule unanimously against the grabber in these and any other voter suppression attempts. This is the ONLY way the con sniffs an EC win.
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  #1870  
Old 08-06-2020, 02:09 PM
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What do you make of this?

Florida Democrats aimed to register 1 million voters by now. They didn’t come close.

I guess I'm fine with whatever makes Democrats feel like they don't have it in the bag, but hopefully it's not as significant as it sounds.
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