BoltProspects Community Forums  

Go Back   BoltProspects Community Forums > Miscellaneous > The Room

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1781  
Old 07-31-2020, 04:04 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is online now
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,902
Default

Emory University political scientist:

Quote:
Biden is consistently running 7-8 pts. ahead of Clinton 2016 margin in the states. But he is also running ahead of Obama 2012 margin and, remarkably, Obama 2008 margin. This is based on latest FiveThirtyEight data.
https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz/...830223874?s=20

Obama won 52.9% to 45.7% in 2008 and got 365 electoral votes.

My back of the envelope, once you allocate undecideds, is the polling says Biden would win by about 54% to 44% if the election was held today, and would win nearly all the top tier swing states cleanly with North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Missouri (in that order) falling within the MOE (North Carolina leans to Biden, Texas a very slight lean to Biden, the Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia triumvirate pure coin flips with Biden ahead < 1%, and Missouri leaning to Trump). So, Biden sitting on 320 EV's with six states worth 103 EV's as toss ups.

Utah and Alaska are perilously close to sneaking into that MOE category, btw, and I was shocked Missouri's in there (although in 2008 McCain only won it by less than 4,000 votes). Caveat: that's based on limited polling in those three states.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29

Last edited by pete; 07-31-2020 at 04:19 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #1782  
Old 07-31-2020, 04:29 PM
Donnie D's Avatar
Donnie D Donnie D is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sarasota
Posts: 10,330
Default

Pick Whitmer and work on your inauguration speech.
__________________
"In 2016, there were Republicans concerned about the 'reality show' president, but in 2020, there are Republicans concerned about the reality of the president,”
Reply With Quote
  #1783  
Old 07-31-2020, 04:44 PM
Donnie D's Avatar
Donnie D Donnie D is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sarasota
Posts: 10,330
Default

She’s the opposite of a safe pick. She would be a distraction like Eagleton.
__________________
"In 2016, there were Republicans concerned about the 'reality show' president, but in 2020, there are Republicans concerned about the reality of the president,”
Reply With Quote
  #1784  
Old 07-31-2020, 04:49 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is online now
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,902
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
Pick Whitmer and work on your inauguration speech.
I just don't think the party elders in the Black Caucus (who Biden owes his ass to after South Carolina) will co-sign any white VP other than Elizabeth Warren, if you read between the lines of what Jim Clyburn has said.

My suspicion is this Karen Bass trial balloon is really just throwing some respect their way before they go back to a more obvious choice like Harris, Rice, or Warren next week. The rumor is that they never even seriously vetted Abrams.

And Bass seems like such an unforced error she makes Rice seem like a less fatal risk, which may also be part of this trial balloon's purpose because both Biden and Obama are very high on Rice personally and professionally. It will totally trigger the nutters, though, if Biden picks her.

My other theory is that the Biden people are playing this weird little 3D chess game where they're using Bass and the process to make Harris more of a sympathetic figure to the Bernie left so that they'll finally accept her. Bass has defended Harris against some of these hit piece quotes that have come from leaks from Dodd and Rendell, and given how the Obama people were always so good at stopping leaks and preventing drama, part of me wonders if this is all a setup to create a "rally around Kamala" effect.

Either of the above two are plausible to me, although the Rice scenario is moreso.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29

Last edited by pete; 07-31-2020 at 04:58 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #1785  
Old 07-31-2020, 05:48 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is online now
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,902
Default

1,327 COVID-19 deaths so far today, and it appears to me California hasn't fully reported in today. Texas doesn't appear to have gone over 300 deaths again today, but it's just barely below that threshold. Florida continues to hover around 250 a day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29
Reply With Quote
  #1786  
Old 07-31-2020, 06:05 PM
Donnie D's Avatar
Donnie D Donnie D is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sarasota
Posts: 10,330
Default

Trumps reset campaign includes a big media buy In Michigan and North Carolina. The theme will be that Biden has moved more to the left than Bernie Sanders thought was possible.

Trump may unify the democrats more than anyone. It also shows the risk of picking Bass.

Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), a leading contender to be Joe Biden’s running mate, heaped praise on the Church of Scientology at a 2010 ribbon-cutting ceremony for a Los Angeles facility, The Daily Caller reports. At the event, which was filmed, Bass praised the church’s founder L. Ron Hubbard and told the 6,000 attendees that the opening was “an exciting moment because I know your goal and your commitment is truly to make a difference.” Bass, 66, was a member of the California General Assembly at the time. The shady church has been accused by former members of operating like a cult, allowing sexual and physical abuse to proliferate, and intimidating former members into silence by stalking and threatening them.
__________________
"In 2016, there were Republicans concerned about the 'reality show' president, but in 2020, there are Republicans concerned about the reality of the president,”

Last edited by Donnie D; 07-31-2020 at 06:09 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #1787  
Old 07-31-2020, 06:30 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is online now
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,902
Default

Big media buy in Michigan = lighting money on fire.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29
Reply With Quote
  #1788  
Old 07-31-2020, 07:08 PM
RSchmitz's Avatar
RSchmitz RSchmitz is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,161
Default

Yeah, that’ll hurt
__________________
If no government system will guarantee a utopia, then our best choice is to look for the least exploitive one
Reply With Quote
  #1789  
Old 07-31-2020, 07:13 PM
RSchmitz's Avatar
RSchmitz RSchmitz is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,161
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RSchmitz View Post
Yeah, that’ll hurt
Whoever they pick needs to be groomed for 2028
__________________
If no government system will guarantee a utopia, then our best choice is to look for the least exploitive one
Reply With Quote
  #1790  
Old 07-31-2020, 07:19 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is online now
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,902
Default

Needs to be groomed with an understanding the early call to the bullpen may need to come in 2024. It’s gross political negligence to assume a man who will be over 80 years old will be able to take on a re-election campaign.

Which is why you either need someone who already has presidential campaign experience, or a rising prospect. There’s no point in picking a caretaker VP.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:44 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2005-2008, BoltProspects.com. All Rights Reserved.