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  #621  
Old 07-01-2020, 03:05 PM
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Reports are out that 2 hub cities are Toronto and Edmonton.

The earlier concept of having the east play in the west hub is apparently dead.
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  #622  
Old 07-02-2020, 05:33 AM
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The NBA is considering doing their broadcasts on a delay to censor what the audience hears. I wouldn’t be surprised to the NHL did the same.
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  #623  
Old 07-02-2020, 07:00 AM
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Here's a question that I've heard nothing on.... the impact for the games could be huge.
What if a player tests positive after the games start. In the real world everyone is quarantined for 14 days. Has the NHL / NHLPA stated how they intend to handle this? Believe me this virus is not going away... Players like Stralhman, Boyle and others who have battled pulmonary disease / cancer are at extreme risk.
Or, is this 'we' are just really tough and everything will be AOK?

Has anyone heard anything beyond where playing in a bubble for x months.
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Last edited by goldenbolt; 07-02-2020 at 07:03 AM.
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  #624  
Old 07-02-2020, 07:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
Reports are out that 2 hub cities are Toronto and Edmonton.

The earlier concept of having the east play in the west hub is apparently dead.
So unearned home ice for Toronto. Cool.
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  #625  
Old 07-02-2020, 07:42 AM
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So unearned home ice for Toronto. Cool.
Funny how when columbus was going to be the hub, the big push was to get rid of any sort of home ice advantage.
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  #626  
Old 07-02-2020, 08:18 AM
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Funny how when columbus was going to be the hub, the big push was to get rid of any sort of home ice advantage.
One thing I neglected to mention in my prior post of leaning towards a desire of no hockey and just scrapping season was the overriding (and justified) thinking that the NHL could fuck up a cup of coffee, so the more layers of complications you are adding, the more opportunity for the NHL to turn it into a farce. Given any opportunity, the NHL invariably chooses farce.

To echo Goldenbolt's point, do you think a league that wasn't smart enough to not have the play-in teams in the draft lottery, thereby giving us the idiotic result we got for the top pick, has any logical contingency plan for a positive COVID test that doesn't result in the quarantining of a team during a tournament (thereby de facto eliminating them)? I can guarantee you they don't. The NHL plans for the best possible outcome at all times. It's part of why they constantly look stupid.

I'm still skeptical of this Frankenstein's Monster of a playoff season, and getting less confident of it by the day.

Toronto getting home ice was the first shoe to drop for me.
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  #627  
Old 07-02-2020, 10:09 AM
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The data from Bundesliga seems to suggest that playing at home without fans is actually a significant disadvantage. So bad news for Toronto.

Do Empty Stadiums Affect Outcomes? The Data Say Yes

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The performances of home teams in the Bundesliga have, for all intents and purposes, collapsed in front of empty stands. The number of home victories slipped by 10 percentage points, to 33 percent of matches in empty stadiums from 43 percent in full ones.

The change has been so extreme, in fact, that Lukas Keppler, a managing director of the data and analytics firm Impect, noted a sort of “negative home advantage.” For the first time in soccer history, he said, it has appeared, at times, to be easier to be playing on the road.

According to data provided by another analysis firm, Gracenote, home teams scored fewer goals than they had in full stadiums (1.74 to 1.43 per game), leading to a decline in goal scoring over all.

They also took fewer shots (a decrease of 10 percent), and those that they did take were worse. (The probability of any given shot ending up as a goal dropped more than a point, to 11.11 percent.) Home teams, the research found, also attempted fewer crosses, won fewer corners and tried fewer dribbles.

By almost every attacking metric, Bundesliga teams were worse while playing in an empty home stadium. Most curiously, goalkeepers performed better away from home than they did on their own turf: The percentage of shots saved dropped noticeably for goalkeepers on familiar territory, but increased for those on visiting teams.

“It’s a particularly odd finding,” said Simon Gleave, Gracenote’s head of sports analysis, “because it’s the same goalkeepers, playing home and away.”
They also found the refs stop being homers without a crowd. More bad news.

Last edited by Hoek; 07-02-2020 at 10:12 AM.
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  #628  
Old 07-02-2020, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Hoek View Post
The data from Bundesliga seems to suggest that playing at home without fans is actually a significant disadvantage. So bad news for Toronto.

Do Empty Stadiums Affect Outcomes? The Data Say Yes



They also found the refs stop being homers without a crowd. More bad news.
Well, then that takes that criticism of mine off the table, but it opens up the possibility of a much more impactful side effect I've speculated on: Intensity of play without a crowd. I know the argument has been made that "because it's the playoffs" will take care of everything, but this would point to the opposite, that in fact, fan attendance matters.

Note, I was unable to read the linked article because of paywall restrictions, so it may be that the playoffs are addressed.
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  #629  
Old 07-02-2020, 11:14 AM
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Some more quotes on intensity then...

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Empty stands seemed to sap games of their urgency and intimidating stadiums of their hostility. At least one player noted motivation — to strain that final sinew, to make that last burst — was more elusive in the silence. Many fans, watching on, seemed to detect the same lack of intensity.

The data, though, does not bear that out. According to the Bundesliga — which tracks and records its own analytics, and then feeds the numbers back to its clubs — players sprinted a little more, and teams made marginally more high-intensity runs, in games held in empty stadiums than they had previously this season.

“The game does not appear to be any less intense at all without fans,” Keppler said. Though most teams’ performance varied only a little, he noted that “Bayern Munich, the team that had the most sprints before the coronavirus break, could even increase their rate afterward.”

Bayern — on its way to recording an eighth consecutive championship — was not as impressive as Hertha Berlin, though. Inspired by a new coach, Bruno Labbadia, Hertha went from producing 211 sprints in a game to 238 (bettered only by Bayern and Augsburg), and managed almost 100 more high-intensity runs per game.

Dortmund, meanwhile, slumped, enduring the largest drop in those two metrics of any team in Germany. The lesson, perhaps, is that the presence of fans is not as significant to a team’s intensity as having something to play for. Where Hertha’s players had a new coach to impress and a season to save, Dortmund was drifting to yet another year in Bayern’s shadow. That, rather than the empty stands, drew its sting.
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While industry and effort might have remained unchanged, Gleave saw in his figures — fewer shots, fewer dribbles, fewer home wins — proof that something was missing.

His conclusion, one that many fans watching might instinctively uphold, is that the urge to entertain diminishes if there is nobody to respond. Games since the restart have featured, on average, 16 more passes than normal, a signal to Gleave that players, subconsciously or not, are “choosing to pass the ball rather than attempt plays which would normally get fans on their feet.”

And yet similar data sets can give rise to different conclusions. Impect’s signature statistic is a metric called packing: a way of measuring how many opponents are bypassed by each and every action — whether a pass or a dribble — a player makes. “It measures the effectiveness of a team’s buildup,” Keppler said, and it has been, essentially, unchanged since the restart. “The overall quality of the game remained the same.”
Basically they might be less fancy about it, but they still accomplish the same results, just more methodically.

The Bundesliga didn't have a playoffs, so can't really see any results pertaining to that other than that comparison of teams having something to play for versus not.

Last edited by Hoek; 07-02-2020 at 11:17 AM.
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  #630  
Old 07-02-2020, 11:26 AM
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Some more quotes on intensity then...





Basically they might be less fancy about it, but they still accomplish the same results, just more methodically.

The Bundesliga didn't have a playoffs, so can't really see any results pertaining to that other than that comparison of teams having something to play for versus not.
Good stuff and certainly germane to our questions as to the level of play we might expect.
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