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  #1181  
Old 07-01-2020, 09:01 AM
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More bad news for President Trump on our new CNBC/Change Research battleground States of Play poll our this morning: Joe Biden leads by 6 points in the 6 battleground states (50 to 44), up 3 points over the past two weeks. Biden has a lead in all six battleground states now.

A stunning 48% of voters in the battleground and nationally report having lost wages in their household as a result of COVID-19, and almost 80% are still experiencing those wage cuts. The president will have a difficult time campaigning on the economy, which once was a strength.

But the virus is what’s really taking a toll on Trump’s numbers: 57% nationally and 55% in the battleground agree that “Donald Trump is pushing states to reopen their economies too quickly in order to boost his own re-election chances.”

60% nationally and 57% in the battleground disagree that “Donald Trump is setting a good example and providing accurate information about proper COVID-19 precautions.”
https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/stat...770271745?s=20
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Last edited by pete; 07-01-2020 at 09:31 AM.
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  #1182  
Old 07-01-2020, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by pete View Post
There have been rumors that Clarence Thomas, who is 72 but has been on the court going on 29 years, wants to retire soon.
As in right after the session so Trump can appoint the new justice before the election.
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  #1183  
Old 07-01-2020, 09:43 AM
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Here's another nugget pointing toward why this is a values election.

Harry Enten points out how a candidate polls on "honesty" is a fairly stable number over the course of a race and how it correlated to election results in 2016. Biden beat Trump on the honesty question by 12% in the Pew poll yesterday. He was ahead in the poll 10%. In 2016, Clinton won the honesty question in national exit polls by 3%. She won the popular vote by 2%. But, she lost in that area narrowly in the exits in the upper Midwest states that turned the election.

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Interestingly, it's not as if Trump is viewed as any less honest today than four years ago. Only 33% said he was honest and trustworthy in the 2016 exit poll. Today, it's usually around 35%, depending on the poll.
The difference is that Biden is seen as far more honest than Clinton was. While 36% of voters said Clinton was honest and trustworthy in the exit poll, around 45% to 50% said the same about Biden in any individual poll right now.

It's also important to make a comparison with where Clinton and Trump were at this point in the campaign.

The numbers at this point in 2016 were pretty equal to how they ended up in November. A third of voters (33%) said Clinton was honest and trustworthy in a June 2016 CBS New poll. About the same slice of the pie (32%) believed Trump was honest and trustworthy.

This means that despite all of the ads for and against Clinton and Trump, the honesty numbers didn't budge from June to November.

Therefore, when former FBI Director James Comey's letter reopening the investigation into Clinton's emails was released in the late stages of the 2016 campaign, it wasn't like it gave voters an epiphany. The underlying belief many voters had that Clinton wasn't honest had been sewn long before that point. The letter simply brought the idea that Clinton wasn't honest or trustworthy back to the forefront.

Looking to the rest of the 2020 campaign, Trump is likely to try to shift Biden's numbers more toward Clinton's. He has recently called Biden "Corrupt Joe" on Twitter. It's not clear at all Trump's efforts are going to work.

The one bet I would make is that it'll be difficult for Trump to win if voters see Biden as more trustworthy by a double-digit margin. The candidate seen as more honest usually wins. Bill Clinton in 1996 was the last candidate to pull off a win when voters clearly believed the other major-party candidate was more honest.

That's not a particularly good track record if you're Trump.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/polit...sis/index.html
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  #1184  
Old 07-01-2020, 10:12 AM
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Some enterprising reporter went back and looked at what Trump was doing the day the Russia/Taliban bounty report was in his PDB memo, and I kid you not:
  • Meeting with the producers of a play dramatizing Lisa Page and Peter Strzok's text messages.
  • Meeting with YouTubers Diamond and Silk.

https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/stat...971963393?s=20

Is it clear now to you folks in the military how little your lives really mean to this man? Disagree with Democrats all you want about the application of hard power, at least Democrats give a damn about whether you live or die.

Call me crazy, but any other (real) POTUS cancels their 1 o'clock with Diamond and Silk to meet with the Joint Chiefs about how to put the kibosh on Russian bounties on our soldiers.
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  #1185  
Old 07-01-2020, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
As in right after the session so Trump can appoint the new justice before the election.
Could be. Or Thomas could be trying to go for an even 30 years. Hard to say.
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  #1186  
Old 07-01-2020, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pete View Post
Some enterprising reporter went back and looked at what Trump was doing the day the Russia/Taliban bounty report was in his PDB memo, and I kid you not:
  • Meeting with the producers of a play dramatizing Lisa Page and Peter Strzok's text messages.
  • Meeting with YouTubers Diamond and Silk.

https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/stat...971963393?s=20

Is it clear now to you folks in the military how little your lives really mean to this man? Disagree with Democrats all you want about the application of hard power, at least Democrats give a damn about whether you live or die.

Call me crazy, but any other (real) POTUS cancels their 1 o'clock with Diamond and Silk to meet with the Joint Chiefs about how to put the kibosh on Russian bounties on our soldiers.
No wonder he was too busy to read the briefing book.
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  #1187  
Old 07-01-2020, 10:33 AM
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Could be. Or Thomas could be trying to go for an even 30 years. Hard to say.
I just read a rumor that Alito is looking to retire too. The rumor is that McConnell will agree to let Biden pick Alito’s replacement if he wins so long as the Democrats agree not to abolish the filibuster, which McConnell is now freaked out about.

In the words of Michael Corleone in Godfather II, my offer to you Senator is this... nothing.
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  #1188  
Old 07-01-2020, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by pete View Post
I just read a rumor that Alito is looking to retire too. The rumor is that McConnell will agree to let Biden pick Alito’s replacement if he wins so long as the Democrats agree not to abolish the filibuster, which McConnell is now freaked out about.

In the words of Michael Corleone in Godfather II, my offer to you Senator is this... nothing.
Democrats have gotta win first, and there is a shitload of time left.

Color me skeptical of that rumor. Doesn't sound like the guy who gambled on Trump over the Merrick Garland nomination, when no national polls had him beating Clinton.
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  #1189  
Old 07-01-2020, 10:59 AM
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FYI, I keep checking National Review to see their take on Trump's abdication of military leadership over the Russian bounties. Nothing. We are 3-4 days into this (at least), and not a peep. Not even an equivocation from noted bootlicker and cranky old man Victor Davis Hanson. Nothing. Nada.

This should be top of the fold front page, leading article. Then again, there hasn't been much from the callow, duplicitous, fatuous, Republican Senators or Congresspeople either of course.

NA does have multiple articles discussing Biden's alleged dementia, what a Trump loss looks like for conservatives, and how the protests are subverting law and order throughout the country.

Note, The Bulwark and The Dispatch (Conservative, but decidedly non Pro-Trump, if not outright Anti) have both penned articles in discussion. They aren't on herr Cheeto's side from what I've seen.

I find the above to be incredibly instructive.
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  #1190  
Old 07-01-2020, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by dannybolt View Post
Democrats have gotta win first, and there is a shitload of time left.

Color me skeptical of that rumor. Doesn't sound like the guy who gambled on Trump over the Merrick Garland nomination, when no national polls had him beating Clinton.
In retrospect, all he was gambling was time and the possibility Clinton could decide to nominate someone more liberal than Garland.

IMO, Biden would be a fool to keep the filibuster in place because it gives McConnell the ability to obstruct everything like he did to Obama. That means they'll start pretending deficits matter to them again as they deliberately hamstring economic recovery spending and that they'll kneecap any improvements to the ACA like a public option. Etc. Etc. IOW, it's political suicide to give Mitch McConnell a veto on a Democratic president's agenda.

If Joe wins and Democrats take the Senate they've got at least a two year window to ram through economic stimulus/infrastructure, a public option and further improvements on ACA, policies to address climate change, common sense gun control, immigration reform, a new Voting Rights Act, etc. etc. Basically all the crap we should've been doing since 2000 since the wingnuts took the government hostage. Ram them through and let the GOP bitch and moan why they're against policies that, by and large, the public agrees are common sense and overdue.
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Last edited by pete; 07-01-2020 at 11:27 AM.
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