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  #1171  
Old 06-30-2020, 07:19 PM
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Donnie D Donnie D is offline
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I’m so excited. Received an e-mail and I’ve been given the opportunity to get one of the few remaining Trump $1,000 bills. And they are just $1,000 (plus $9.95 shipping and handling). That means you are only out the $9.95.

I didn’t know we printed our currency in Nigeria.

You know some dumb ass Trump supporter is going to get a couple dozen for the grandkids.
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Last edited by Donnie D; 06-30-2020 at 07:21 PM.
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  #1172  
Old 06-30-2020, 08:04 PM
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So, I'm seeing three plausible scenarios for this election 4 months out.

Scenario #1 - Donnie's Eeyore Scenario - ~10% Chance
  • Biden wins by approximately 3.5-4% nationally, but like 2016 Trump wins a string of swing states by incredibly narrow margins to take the Electoral College. A witch's brew of foreign interference and voter suppression helps Trump win Arizona and Florida while a voodoo priestess delivers him North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  • Democrats only flip a net +1 Senate seats (CO and AZ flip blue, AL flips red) and McConnell keeps the Senate majority. Stephen Miller is confirmed on a party line vote to replace RBG for the Supreme Court in late 2021. Shortly thereafter he pens his first majority decision in favor of Trump's ability to change the American flag to a combination of the Trump University logo and a swastika by Executive Order. Sean Hannity is subsequently hospitalized for having an erection that lasts longer than 4 hours.
  • Democrats keep the House majority but lose a small number of seats.



Scenario #2 - Occam's Razor Scenario - ~75% Chance
  • Biden wins the national popular vote by 6-8% and wins about 2/3 of the swing states.
  • Democrats flip a net +3 Senate seats to get to 50/50 and with the tiebreaking vote of VP Kamala Harris they gain the Senate majority. Kamala blows a taunting kiss to Ted Cruz's thirsty ass (he knows The Beach Boys and Katy Perry weren't lying about California girls) while she casts the tiebreaking vote giving Schumer control.
  • Democrats gain a small handful of House seats to further grow their majority.




Scenario #3 - Pete's Breaking the GOP's Back for a Generation Scenario - ~15% Chance
  • Biden wins the national popular vote by double digits. Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas go blue. States like Montana, Missouri, and South Carolina get into the mid to low single digits with Trump holding on by his fingernails. "Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!"
  • Trump and dozens of his confederates are arrested toward the end of the first 100 days of the Biden Administration by AG Barack Obama ("Surprise! I'm back motherfuckers! Plot twist!"). Bill Barr is sadly hit by a bus trying to elude capture fleeing from a Denny's parking lot. Trump himself becomes the shared bride in a polyamorous prison relationship with a MS-13 gang member and a William "The Refrigerator" Perry lookalike who teach him the true meaning of love.
  • Biden's coattails pull IA-SEN and GA-SEN across the line and Montana gets close enough that Bullock wins there, too. Democrats put Republicans in a box of having to net four seats in 2022 to get control back with only three seats really looking potentially competitive on paper, and after the GOP fails to get control back in 2022 Mitch McConnell retires to a dacha on the Black Sea where he hangs out with his new neighbor Steven Seagal.
  • Democrats enjoy a mini-wave in the House further expanding their House majority by, say, 8-12 seats. AND, more importantly, Biden's victory in Texas helps Democrats flip the Texas legislature, putting a check on gerrymandering in the state and hamstringing Republicans' ability to re-take the House for a decade.
  • In 2023 President Biden accepts his second jersey from Steven Stamkos and the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning. Stamkos apologizes they don't have victory stripes in the armpits. Biden grants Andrei Vasilevskiy, his wife and kids, and his three cats American citizenship in a special ceremony in the Rose Garden later that night.


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Last edited by pete; 06-30-2020 at 08:10 PM.
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  #1173  
Old 06-30-2020, 08:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pete View Post
So, I'm seeing three plausible scenarios for this election 4 months out.

Scenario #1 - Donnie's Eeyore Scenario - ~10% Chance
  • Biden wins by approximately 3.5-4% nationally, but like 2016 Trump wins a string of swing states by incredibly narrow margins to take the Electoral College. A witch's brew of foreign interference and voter suppression helps Trump win Arizona and Florida while a voodoo priestess delivers him North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  • Democrats only flip a net +1 Senate seats (CO and AZ flip blue, AL flips red) and McConnell keeps the Senate majority. Stephen Miller is confirmed on a party line vote to replace RBG for the Supreme Court in late 2021. Shortly thereafter he pens his first majority decision in favor of Trump's ability to change the American flag to a combination of the Trump University logo and a swastika by Executive Order. Sean Hannity is subsequently hospitalized for having an erection that lasts longer than 4 hours.
  • Democrats keep the House majority but lose a small number of seats.



Scenario #2 - Occam's Razor Scenario - ~75% Chance
  • Biden wins the national popular vote by 6-8% and wins about 2/3 of the swing states.
  • Democrats flip a net +3 Senate seats to get to 50/50 and with the tiebreaking vote of VP Kamala Harris they gain the Senate majority. Kamala blows a taunting kiss to Ted Cruz's thirsty ass (he knows The Beach Boys and Katy Perry weren't lying about California girls) while she casts the tiebreaking vote giving Schumer control.
  • Democrats gain a small handful of House seats to further grow their majority.




Scenario #3 - Pete's Breaking the GOP's Back for a Generation Scenario - ~15% Chance
  • Biden wins the national popular vote by double digits. Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas go blue. States like Montana, Missouri, and South Carolina get into the mid to low single digits with Trump holding on by his fingernails. "Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!"
  • Trump and dozens of his confederates are arrested toward the end of the first 100 days of the Biden Administration by AG Barack Obama ("Surprise! I'm back motherfuckers! Plot twist!"). Bill Barr is sadly hit by a bus trying to elude capture fleeing from a Denny's parking lot. Trump himself becomes the shared bride in a polyamorous prison relationship with a MS-13 gang member and a William "The Refrigerator" Perry lookalike who teach him the true meaning of love.
  • Biden's coattails pull IA-SEN and GA-SEN across the line and Montana gets close enough that Bullock wins there, too. Democrats put Republicans in a box of having to net four seats in 2022 to get control back with only three seats really looking potentially competitive on paper, and after the GOP fails to get control back in 2022 Mitch McConnell retires to a dacha on the Black Sea where he hangs out with his new neighbor Steven Seagal.
  • Democrats enjoy a mini-wave in the House further expanding their House majority by, say, 8-12 seats. AND, more importantly, Biden's victory in Texas helps Democrats flip the Texas legislature, putting a check on gerrymandering in the state and hamstringing Republicans' ability to re-take the House for a decade.
  • In 2023 President Biden accepts his second jersey from Steven Stamkos and the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning. Stamkos apologizes they don't have victory stripes in the armpits. Biden grants Andrei Vasilevskiy, his wife and kids, and his three cats American citizenship in a special ceremony in the Rose Garden later that night.


Iíll take whatís behind door #3 for $1000, Pete.
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  #1174  
Old 06-30-2020, 09:05 PM
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pete pete is offline
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Quote:
BREAKING: John Hickenlooper wins #COsen Democratic primary, @AP
projects.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/s...715437568?s=20

Poor red rose Twitter. I almost wanted Booker to win Kentucky just to throw them a bone and get them to STFU.

Meanwhile, in CO-03, Republicans have nominated their second Q-Anon conspiracy theorist for a House seat, this time knocking out an incumbent GOP congress critter:

Quote:
Even so, Boebert's favorable comments regarding the QAnon conspiracy world warrant a move of #CO03 from Solid R to Likely R at @CookPolitical
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...768461312?s=20

Quote:
Boebert owns Shooters Grill, a BBQ restaurant where all staff openly carry guns. Its food service license was suspended after reopened it in defiance of state "stay at home" orders. #CO03
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...157672961?s=20

These people are a parody of themselves, I swear.
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  #1175  
Old 06-30-2020, 09:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pete View Post
Stamkos apologizes they don't have victory stripes in the armpits.
Unacceptable.
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  #1176  
Old 06-30-2020, 10:49 PM
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By a slim margin Oklahoma voters just passed a referendum to accept the ACA Medicaid expansion.
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  #1177  
Old 07-01-2020, 01:09 AM
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Unfortunately the 2016 election delivered Republicans enough SCOTUS seats to be relevant for the foreseeable future.
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  #1178  
Old 07-01-2020, 07:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RSchmitz View Post
Unfortunately the 2016 election delivered Republicans enough SCOTUS seats to be relevant for the foreseeable future.
John Roberts is not a consistent death cult vote.
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  #1179  
Old 07-01-2020, 07:25 AM
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There have been rumors that Clarence Thomas, who is 72 but has been on the court going on 29 years, wants to retire soon. If that were to come to pass during Bidenís administration, along with the obvious need to get replacements in for RBG and Breyer, the Supreme Court would flip to 5-4 liberal. Alito is the next oldest at 70 years old.
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  #1180  
Old 07-01-2020, 08:11 AM
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I would interpret these results as toward the high end of Option #2.

National GE:
Quote:
Biden 49% (+8)
Trump 41%

@ChangePolls
/
@CNBC
6/26-28
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/s...982611456?s=20

Quote:
NEW
@ChangePolls
/
@CNBC
Poll (6/26-28):

#Arizona:
Biden 51% (+7)
Trump 44%
.
#Florida:
Biden 50% (+5)
Trump 45%
.
#Wisconsin:
Biden 51% (+8)
Trump 43%
.
#Pennsylvania:
Biden 50% (+6)
Trump 44%
.
#Michigan:
Biden 48% (+5)
Trump 43%
.
North Carolina:
Biden 51% (+7)
Trump 44%
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/s...146212352?s=20

If you parse the smaller state samples, it doesn't pass the sniff test to me that the margin in Florida and North Carolina is larger than in Michigan, but I think when you do these national polls and then pull out states as smaller subsamples they can be noisy.

Quote:
NEW
@ChangePolls
/
@CNBC
Poll (6/26-28):

#NCsen:
Cunningham (D) 51% (+10)
Tillis (R-inc) 41%
.
#AZsen:
Kelly (D) 53% (+9)
McSally (R-inc) 44%
.
#MIsen:
Peters (D-inc) 49% (+7)
James (R) 42%
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/s...861676546?s=20

I don't believe that NC-SEN gap is that big, but it gives the picture that Tillis is in real trouble. The other two results are no big surprise.
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