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  #1  
Old 11-22-2019, 11:13 AM
bolts37205 bolts37205 is offline
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Default Based only on remaining SOS, Lightning are now 43% to not make playoffs

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/lig...standings.html

not a lot of methodology, but also just analytical for what we have been thus far and what our future opponents have been. The stark reality that is totally believable. I did not buy into the galvanizing trip to Sweden and the extrapolations that were drawn by writers whom I love to read.

I have not drawn any confidence that we are readying ourselves and timing it for a long playoff run as in get hot at the right time and reap the rewards. I cannot see that by the effort and leadership shown on ice so far. Has anyone else? I fear bitter truth ahead and cap hell soon to be drawn into an inescapable black hole.
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:38 AM
Iceman Iceman is online now
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Meh. As crappy as we have played we are 4 points out of the second wildcard with 3 games in hand. It's a long season, let it play out, usually the cream rises.
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceman View Post
Meh. As crappy as we have played we are 4 points out of the second wildcard with 3 games in hand. It's a long season, let it play out, usually the cream rises.
I think it's worth pointing out that according to this website, we have a 43% chance of missing the playoffs. That is better than the two current wildcard teams in the Flyers (51%) and Pens (48%), as well as the third spot Canadians (50%).

This is such a weird season start so far I'm not reading a ton into a lot of these things. The stats states something like 75% of the teams that make the playoffs are in the playoffs by Thanksgiving. That would line up a lot with the % chance of making the playoffs you see here. I think the problem with this lies in the fact that I'm not sure we've ever seen so many top tier teams sit outside the playoffs at this point (teams that should be cup contenders). You currently have the Sharks, Flames, Preds, Lightning, and Leafs all sitting out of playoff spots. I'd honestly be surprised if all of these teams don't figure it out and make the playoffs. To put it another way, if you gave me 33% odds that the Preds and Flames both miss the playoffs, I'd head to Vegas now to make that bet.
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Old 11-22-2019, 12:13 PM
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And the Athletic’s model has us with a 96% chance of making the playoffs, second only to Boston at 99%.
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Old 11-22-2019, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
And the Athletic’s model has us with a 96% chance of making the playoffs, second only to Boston at 99%.
I take it back, I dont even call equally bs. I believe we are much closer to a 57% playoff chance than 96%.

Last edited by BurnTHalO; 11-22-2019 at 12:50 PM.
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Old 11-22-2019, 12:53 PM
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I wonder why SportsClubStats hasn't updated since last season...

That Athletic model sounds dumb unless it's solely based on what people thought before the season, lol.

As for cap hell and inescapable black hole, that's being way too melodramatic. Even if we miss this season we still have more than enough talent to be back.
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:20 PM
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The Athletic is based upon player statistics over the past 3 years with factors for growth and age for future games and actual results to date.

If you use Pete’s basic 12 points in 10 games concept, we are much closer to 96% than 57%.
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Last edited by Donnie D; 11-22-2019 at 01:23 PM.
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Old 11-22-2019, 02:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
The Athletic is based upon player statistics over the past 3 years with factors for growth and age for future games and actual results to date.

If you use Pete’s basic 12 points in 10 games concept, we are much closer to 96% than 57%.
How do you get much closer to 96%? If we keep the exact same pace, we are off of Pete's concept. Now, I'll accept that on paper, this team should be much better than their current pace. I say you could reasonably argue there is a 2/3 chance of them increasing to that pace. Heck, I'll even give you a 3/4 chance (keep in mind I have no models backing anything up, just a rough estimate). But that is still not closer to 96%.

And here in lies the problem. Your argument would mean this team is trending in the direction of correcting the ship. The pace you are talking about is 1.2 points per game. We currently are on a 1.15 point per game pace. In our last 10, we are on a 1.1 point per game pace. The team is not on it's way up yet. They should turn it around, but I have no clue how you can virtually guarantee they will, especially when your argument is how players did in previous seasons. THIS team needs to show me something. FYI, I'm not even saying I'm worried about making the playoffs right now, but it's ridiculous to look at how they have done this season and think they are virtual locks to jump into the playoffs.
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  #9  
Old 11-22-2019, 02:42 PM
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We have 22 points in 19 games.

That’s a 95 point pace. The accepted standard is that 96 points puts you in the playoffs.
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Old 11-22-2019, 03:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
We have 22 points in 19 games.

That’s a 95 point pace. The accepted standard is that 96 points puts you in the playoffs.
Yeah, which is how I factored out our point per game pace. Meaning we are below the 12 point in 10 game pace. Again, we could pick it up, but I don't see where you come up with the idea we are going to do so with 96% certainty.
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