BoltProspects Community Forums  

Go Back   BoltProspects Community Forums > Miscellaneous > The Room

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #10701  
Old 11-14-2017, 09:06 PM
LightningTdi's Avatar
LightningTdi LightningTdi is offline
Rick Dudley's Hairpiece
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 15
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
And that’s not a poll.
LOL...ok...

2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Reply With Quote
  #10702  
Old 11-14-2017, 09:49 PM
Flycoon Flycoon is online now
Cooper's Law
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 4,571
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LightningTdi View Post
LOL...ok...

2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Really? Trolling over a year afterwards? Geez....
Reply With Quote
  #10703  
Old 11-14-2017, 10:51 PM
Donnie D's Avatar
Donnie D Donnie D is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sarasota
Posts: 6,931
Default

Hannity: Moore must give 'satisfactory explanation' for allegations or 'get out of this race'
__________________
If they retire Mark Streit’s number before Curtis McElhinney‘s, I swear, I will never watch the Lightning again. Never forget.
Reply With Quote
  #10704  
Old 11-14-2017, 11:07 PM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is offline
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 10,509
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
Hannity: Moore must give 'satisfactory explanation' for allegations or 'get out of this race'
When Hannity starts to pivot, I'd say the tide is starting to turn. Even Bannon began hedging his bets a little today. This on the heels of the RNC pulling their support for Moore the same way the NRSC has.

As I've said, let's give credit where it's due when/if they do the right thing.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2017-2018: 10

This message is hidden because WaiverWire is on your ignore list.
Reply With Quote
  #10705  
Old 11-14-2017, 11:11 PM
LightningTdi's Avatar
LightningTdi LightningTdi is offline
Rick Dudley's Hairpiece
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 15
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flycoon View Post
Really? Trolling over a year afterwards? Geez....
Do you trust the polls after last year?
Reply With Quote
  #10706  
Old 11-15-2017, 08:50 AM
ChaseSpace's Avatar
ChaseSpace ChaseSpace is offline
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 5,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LightningTdi View Post
Do you trust the polls after last year?
Yes. If you bother to actually look at the 538 projections while they predicted a Clinton win the Trump victory was within their margin of error.

They're not an exact science and 538, along with a handful of other respected polls, have a proven track record of cutting through the fog.
__________________
Gudas Priest
Reply With Quote
  #10707  
Old 11-15-2017, 08:57 AM
BurnTHalO's Avatar
BurnTHalO BurnTHalO is online now
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Marietta, OH
Posts: 5,714
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LightningTdi View Post
Do you trust the polls after last year?

You are basing your statement off of 1 year. Bring me the statistical accuracy over the last 15 years and we can talk.
Reply With Quote
  #10708  
Old 11-15-2017, 10:39 AM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is offline
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 10,509
Default

There was one more poll in that batch of 13.

Quote:
And finally, @ppppolls numbers from open NJ-02, Long held by GOPer LoBiondo. Democrat leads generic ballot 44-39.
https://twitter.com/AliLapp/status/930483825553092608

All I can say is this: 10 of 13 of these polls show Republican incumbents losing (some by double digits) in suburban districts by greater than the MOE 2 weeks after the Republicans got trucked in the Virginia House of Delegates races in suburban districts.

That's on the same day Marist released a generic ballot poll showing Democrats with a 15% advantage (which is an amazingly big gap, 51-36), and there was a nearly identical 13% advantage in the Quinnipiac poll (51-38), and Ipsos had the best news of the day (if you can call this good) giving the Democrats a 10% advantage (43-33). Democrats probably need a 7 or 8% lead on the generic ballot to have any shot of flipping the House and a 10% or better lead to feel like it's in the bag.

29 House Republicans have already announced their retirement heading into 2018, which is usually a canary in the coal mine for wave elections, and 3 of those announced after the Virginia election results. Open seats take the advantage of incumbency off the table for the party in power and make races, in many cases, almost literally Generic D versus Generic R, which is bad for the party in power if they're losing that badly on the generic ballot.

And Trump's got historically bad approval ratings nationwide, mostly in the 30's.

But, by all means, I hope Republicans are complacent and think 2018 is in the bag for them in spite of all of the above evidence to the contrary.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2017-2018: 10

This message is hidden because WaiverWire is on your ignore list.
Reply With Quote
  #10709  
Old 11-15-2017, 10:42 AM
pete's Avatar
pete pete is offline
BP Staff
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 10,509
Default

McConnell told the WSJ he thinks the Republicans will have to mount a write-in campaign and the only politician in Alabama popular enough to win a write-in campaign is... Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III.

If he steps down as AG to run, we're officially back in the deep waters of a potential Constitutional crisis because Trump will likely nominate an AG based solely on whether or not that person will fire Mueller for him to save him and his kin from potential prosecution.
__________________
S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2017-2018: 10

This message is hidden because WaiverWire is on your ignore list.
Reply With Quote
  #10710  
Old 11-15-2017, 09:55 PM
WaiverWire's Avatar
WaiverWire WaiverWire is offline
Steven Stamkos' One Timer
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Tampa
Posts: 5,831
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BurnTHalO View Post
So then your 90% number is completely inaccurate for the current technology anyways.
Florida Polygraph Association has been tracking for years and since the change to computers they say they have a 90+% accuracy.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:47 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2005-2008, BoltProspects.com. All Rights Reserved.