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  #1381  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by RSchmitz View Post
I would argue that you could also guard against mosquitoes by setting yourself on fire. If they have to gaslight people in order to properly convey their message, than there is a problem with the message. It was done on purpose. It should be very clear that the intent of the call to action is to also affirm all of those who want to eliminate the police.
Agree. As Frank Luntz has said, words matter. Some 70+% of the country agrees that the criminal justice system, and particularly law enforcement, need serious analysis and reforms. Even if there are only 18% that take that phrase to mean we get rid of police departments, that’s still a sizable percentage that we don’t need to unduly energize in order to make the point. I hate doling out softball talking points to faux news when its unnecessary.
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  #1382  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:18 AM
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Our new Alaska poll, (client: Election Twitter), finds the Presidential race in the state is likely to be the closest it's been since the 60s. Donald Trump leads Joe Biden just 48-45:

Trump has a 46/49 approval rating in Alaska. Biden actually leads by double digits with independents, 52-39:

Alaska looks like another potentially competitive Senate race Republicans have to defend. Dan Sullivan has just a 35% approval rating, with 37% disapproving. 27% have no opinion about him either way:

Sullivan leads Al Gross 39-34.

But 72% of voters aren't familiar with Gross. And among those who are, he leads Sullivan 56-36. Suggests that if he has the resources to become better known, he can really make it a race:

In the House race Alyse Galvin slightly leads Don Young, 43-41. Young has a 35% approval rating, with 44% disapproving.

Galvin had the best personal numbers of the 8 people we tested in the poll, with a net +8 favorability rating:

A cautionary note on Galvin's edge though- the undecideds are Trump +26. A lot of Trump voters who don't like Young but those people often come home and it would push him back ahead if that happened:
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/...687863296?s=20

Civiqs said Montana and Alaska were narrowing and that Alaska's Senate race could be competitive if the narrowing continued.
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  #1383  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:19 AM
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Supreme Court rules New York prosecutor can get Trump's tax returns

Lock him up.
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  #1384  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Donnie D View Post
Supreme Court rules New York prosecutor can get Trump's tax returns

Lock him up.
"Like Don Henley said...

Somebody's going to emergency, somebody's going to jail.

In a New York minute."

-Alternate Universe Lefty Chris Berman (probably)
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  #1385  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:29 AM
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SCOTUS vacates the Mazars ruling and sends it back down to the 2nd circuit to be tried again.

Says Congressional subpoenas are enforceable but lower court didn't properly take separation of powers arguments?
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  #1386  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:43 AM
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People are saying this delays it past the election unfortunately.
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  #1387  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:45 AM
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This is why I don't trust these polls anymore showing Biden with a substantial lead.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2...6BLVDbHnBg4&e=

The only caveat I would make to my statement, is that the past early election primaries did not have a pandemic, economic collapse and racial unrest occur afterwards. Trump's popularity is sinking dramatically since IA and NH, so this may be another outlier in the election process.
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  #1388  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:48 AM
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What I am getting from the commentary. Trump wins and loses.

The New York case is remanded back to the lower court. Basically, the SCOTUS said that being President does not make you immune. However they still have to justify the need for the Grand Jury to get the documents. That could take 2 years to resolve.

On the Congress case, that was also sent back to the lower court. The SCOTUS established the guidelines that the congress must meet to get to get the documents. Again that could take years to resolve.

Trumps appointees voted with the majority on both cases. Both decisions were 7-2 votes.

Trump wins because he delays the release of the information until after the election.
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Last edited by Donnie D; 07-09-2020 at 09:51 AM.
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  #1389  
Old 07-09-2020, 09:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutznboltz View Post
This is why I don't trust these polls anymore showing Biden with a substantial lead.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2...6BLVDbHnBg4&e=

The only caveat I would make to my statement, is that the past early election primaries did not have a pandemic, economic collapse and racial unrest occur afterwards. Trump's popularity is sinking dramatically since IA and NH, so this may be another outlier in the election process.
His model is like Sex Panther Cologne: it works 60% of the time every time. Not worried.
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  #1390  
Old 07-09-2020, 10:41 AM
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Florida positive rate jumps to almost 19%, and deaths were 120. Of note, not all those deaths were yesterday, but they make a statement that there are delays in reporting so don't read into short term trends on death. And the deaths still only represent permanent residents.
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