2012 Entry Draft - Page 25

pete · #**241** 05-19-2012, 01:28 PM

My philosophy, for this draft, is that there's quality d-men all the way down in the 3rd round. So, if there's a goaltender you believe will be an NHLer sitting at 19 (hell, if there's one sitting there at 10), given the scarcity of them, pull the trigger. If that's Vasilievski, if that's Dansk, pull the trigger. Get our Schneider/Bernier now.

I'm of the mind, right now, that if all the picks are kept I'm taking the best d-man available at 10, and Vasilievski or Dansk at 19, and then I'm thinking about packaging my high 2nds to move back up into the late 1st round and take yet another d-man. A great draft, for me, would be getting out of the first with Reinhart/Trouba/Ceci, Vasilievski/Dansk, and then stealing a guy like Dalton Thrower or Jordan Schmaltz later in the 1st.

Have you ever seen this many good right d-men in one place in your entire life? I sure haven't.

RSchmitz · #**242** 05-19-2012, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

My philosophy, for this draft, is that there's quality d-men all the way down in the 3rd round. So, if there's a goaltender you believe will be an NHLer sitting at 19 (hell, if there's one sitting there at 10), given the scarcity of them, pull the trigger. If that's Vasilievski, if that's Dansk, pull the trigger. Get our Schneider/Bernier now.

I'm of the mind, right now, that if all the picks are kept I'm taking the best d-man available at 10, and Vasilievski or Dansk at 19, and then I'm thinking about packaging my high 2nds to move back up into the late 1st round and take yet another d-man. A great draft, for me, would be getting out of the first with Reinhart/Trouba/Ceci, Vasilievski/Dansk, and then stealing a guy like Dalton Thrower or Jordan Schmaltz later in the 1st.

Have you ever seen this many good right d-men in one place in your entire life? I sure haven't.

Agree with the assessment disagree with the course of action. If there are so many good dmen, then we should trade down or sit tight. Definitely not reach for a goalie.

thefly · #**243** 05-19-2012, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

My philosophy, for this draft, is that there's quality d-men all the way down in the 3rd round. So, if there's a goaltender you believe will be an NHLer sitting at 19 (hell, if there's one sitting there at 10), given the scarcity of them, pull the trigger. If that's Vasilievski, if that's Dansk, pull the trigger. Get our Schneider/Bernier now.

I'm of the mind, right now, that if all the picks are kept I'm taking the best d-man available at 10, and Vasilievski or Dansk at 19, and then I'm thinking about packaging my high 2nds to move back up into the late 1st round and take yet another d-man. A great draft, for me, would be getting out of the first with Reinhart/Trouba/Ceci, Vasilievski/Dansk, and then stealing a guy like Dalton Thrower or Jordan Schmaltz later in the 1st.

Have you ever seen this many good right d-men in one place in your entire life? I sure haven't.

amen

pete · #**244** 05-19-2012, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Definitely not reach for a goalie.

I don't believe Vasilievski or Dansk is a reach, and you still get more goalies from the top-60 picks in the NHL draft than anywhere else.

We sit around and complain the Lightning have never developed an NHL starting goaltender, but we've only used a top-60 pick on one something like twice (Moss and Helenius, were there ever any others?) in, what, 19 drafts now?

RSchmitz · #**245** 05-19-2012, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

I don't believe Vasilievski or Dansk is a reach, and you still get more goalies from the top-60 picks in the NHL draft than anywhere else.

We sit around and complain the Lightning have never developed an NHL starting goaltender, but we've only used a top-60 pick on one something like twice (Moss and Helenius, were there ever any others?) in, what, 19 drafts now?

Well, we both know that is just because historically goalies aren't picked high, since they take so long to develop and are very hard to project, and its 19 positions to fill vs 2. I was under the impression that most of the scouting sites had this years goaltenders outside the first round. I'm not against drafting a goalie so long as its BPA

pete · #**246** 05-19-2012, 09:59 PM

The only consensus first round goaltender was Vasilievski, BUT that was before Dansk did so well right up until the final game at the U18's, and the U18's have a way of pushing goalies into the first round (see Helenius, Riku).

I get the THN article's point that your hit rate on goalies is lower than on skaters because of the time to develop them. Guess what? Your hit rate on d-men is lower than forwards for the exact same reason. Nobody's making the argument you should take forwards over d-men in the first round, though.

Your best chance, statistically, of getting a good NHL player at forward, defenseman, OR goaltender is still taking one in the top-60 picks, and the best odds of all are taking one in the first round.

You want to fix the goaltending position long-term? Draft at least one goaltender in the top-60 picks, and if your scouts seriously believe Vasilievski or Dansk is the real thing, use a first rounder on them. Get the next generation of Cory Schneider or Jonathan Bernier for your long-term health if you can't engineer a trade to get one of them now.

Worst-case scenario, if Tokarski or Helenius pan out ahead of them, you have an asset you can trade for a king's ransom, because nothing's more valuable than a good young goaltender. It's the closest thing in sports to the value of a good NFL quarterback, because it means that much to your franchise's ability to succeed.

ChaseSpace · #**247** 05-19-2012, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

I get the THN article's point that your hit rate on goalies is lower than on skaters because of the time to develop them. Guess what? Your hit rate on d-men is lower than forwards for the exact same reason. Nobody's making the argument you should take forwards over d-men in the first round, though.

Your best chance, statistically, of getting a good NHL player at forward, defenseman, OR goaltender is still taking one in the top-60 picks, and the best odds of all are taking one in the first round.

You want to fix the goaltending position long-term? Draft at least one goaltender in the top-60 picks, and if your scouts seriously believe Vasilievski or Dansk is the real thing, use a first rounder on them. Get the next generation of Cory Schneider or Jonathan Bernier for your long-term health if you can't engineer a trade to get one of them now.

I agree with all of this.