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Old 11-08-2018, 11:07 AM
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pete pete is offline
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I don't even know what the idiot is celebrating about. "We didn't get our asses kicked as bad as we could have! Yay!"

We're now looking at ~37 seats flipped in the House, and there's a fair number of folks who believe that majority could be a durable one because the seat profiles (many suburban educated districts) look like ones that may be realigning into the Democratic camp permanently. And, there's still a handful of good targets Democrats left on the table in the House they can go after in 2020.

I don't know how anyone can celebrate losing badly in the urban and suburban places where some 60-70% of all Americans live.

We're looking at, at least, a net of 6 governor's mansions flipped to the Democrats, I believe? Including key ones in Michigan and Wisconsin that absolutely matter.

A host of ballot initiatives including Amendment 4 in FL and AVR in Michigan that will make it a lot easier for Democrats to get their profile of voters registered and to the polls. Medicaid expansions in places out west like Utah, of all places. Bipartisan redistricting amendments passed in Michigan and Missouri and one or two other places, I believe.

Fought off a naked power grab in North Carolina that should ultimately lead to the reversal of the horrible gerrymandering in that state and, hopefully, the completely scumbaggy way they run elections there disenfranchising minorities and young people.

Flipped over 300 state legislature and Senate seats nationwide. They consolidated trifecta control over the governments in two pretty important former purple states like Colorado and Nevada. These used to be considered purple states that were targets of opportunity back in the 2008 election. Ten years later, they look like they're becoming reliably Democratic states, and Arizona looks destined to fall next if you look at the map.

Bottom line is, on a host of strategic items, the Democrats set themselves up moving forward to be ascendant because they have some tools now to undo the kind of gerrymandering and voter suppression that made Trump's very narrow Electoral College victory possible. And, they're starting to rebuild their bench after seeing it atrophy for a decade.

On top of the fact that they now will have a check on the abuses of Executive Branch power starting in January.

So, I don't know what he's braying about. Democrats didn't get the cherry on top by getting some of their more charismatic high profile candidates like Beto in, but they got most everything else they wanted/needed. Would I have loved a victory cigar or two like Texas Senate? Sure. Would I trade a Texas Senate win if it meant Amendment 4 didn't pass? Ehhhh, I don't know that I'd make that bargain, even if it's not a flashy, shiny win. And even Beto's relatively narrow loss should be making Republicans queasy, because he may have fast-tracked Texas becoming a purple state by a few cycles. Don't know if that happens in 2020, but eventually it's going to happen.

As an aside, just in general, I think this election shows the broad contours of what the future of American electoral politics will be. The Southwest will eventually be blue. It's inevitable that Arizona becomes a blue state next and then Texas. It just is. The New South is also slowly moving toward being bluer: Virginia is now pretty darned blue and I think North Carolina is purple heading toward blue. If you want to think about it conceptually, I think eventually North Carolina will behave a lot like Virginia, electorally, and then Georgia will become a purple state like North Carolina. Why? The DC/Char-lanta corridor really is built for the Obama-coalition of white educated voters and minorities. The only reason it's not happened faster in the past decade is the gutting of the VRA and gerrymandering, but it's inevitable that these states will eventually change politically. The big thing in states like Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia is they lack what Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado have built: progressive infrastructure and GOTV machines. In a span of 8-9 years, Nevada's built one that would make even the most hardened Philly block captain blush. As Democrats build those kinds of infrastructure in those states (and they will, they've figured out how to do it) they will become reliably blue.

Florida doesn't fit that nicely because it's constantly being packed with an always-replenishing supply of conservative retirees, which is always going to make it resistant to overall demographic changes in the rest of the region.

The real question then is what happens in the Midwest and Upper Midwest? These areas are whiter, more variable in education levels, and they're losing population. I think you're seeing a realignment in places like Ohio and Iowa toward behaving more like Indiana. Pennsylvania and Michigan, though, which have proportionally larger shares of their populations from big, diverse urban centers, look to be reflexing back toward their blue roots. Then, I think, Wisconsin and Minnesota are probably destined to be very purple moving forward. Probably eventually will be red. Eventually, I think you're looking at the Democratic electoral state coalition 20 years into the future being a mixture of their traditional New England and Mid Atlantic and Pacific state strongholds, a blue Southwest, the DC/Char-lanta corridor states trending one by one red to purple to blue, and then picking off a few other Midwestern states that will always have big, diverse urban centers like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, etc.
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