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Old 05-19-2012, 09:59 PM
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pete pete is online now
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The only consensus first round goaltender was Vasilievski, BUT that was before Dansk did so well right up until the final game at the U18's, and the U18's have a way of pushing goalies into the first round (see Helenius, Riku).

I get the THN article's point that your hit rate on goalies is lower than on skaters because of the time to develop them. Guess what? Your hit rate on d-men is lower than forwards for the exact same reason. Nobody's making the argument you should take forwards over d-men in the first round, though.

Your best chance, statistically, of getting a good NHL player at forward, defenseman, OR goaltender is still taking one in the top-60 picks, and the best odds of all are taking one in the first round.

You want to fix the goaltending position long-term? Draft at least one goaltender in the top-60 picks, and if your scouts seriously believe Vasilievski or Dansk is the real thing, use a first rounder on them. Get the next generation of Cory Schneider or Jonathan Bernier for your long-term health if you can't engineer a trade to get one of them now.

Worst-case scenario, if Tokarski or Helenius pan out ahead of them, you have an asset you can trade for a king's ransom, because nothing's more valuable than a good young goaltender. It's the closest thing in sports to the value of a good NFL quarterback, because it means that much to your franchise's ability to succeed.
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