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The Great Zo 11-05-2018 05:14 PM

2018 Midterm Election Predictions
 
Pete's idea from the News thread. Only do this if you're really bored. Get your picks in by whenever. OK, let's say 6PM election day. Winner gets an all-expenses paid trip to Norway.

Links are to 538's classic forecasts.

US HOUSE
* Currently 193D-235R (R+42) with 7 vacant seats
* Democrats need a gain of 23 seats to get the majority
* Predict the D gain

US SENATE (lean/likely/toss-up)
AZ: Sinema (D) vs. McSally (R) (538: lean D)
FL: Nelson (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: lean D)
IN: Donnelly (D) vs. Braun (R) (538: lean D)
MN: Smith (D) vs. Housley (R) (538: likely D)
MO: McCaskill (D) vs. Hawley (R) (538: toss-up)
MS: Espy (D) vs. Hyde-Smith (R) (538: likely R)
MT: Tester (D) vs. Rosendale (R) (538: likely D)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs. Cramer (R) (538: lean R)
NJ: Menendez (D) vs. Hugin (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Rosen (D) vs. Heller (R) (538: toss-up)
TN: Bredesen (D) vs. Blackburn (R) (538: likely R)
TX: O'Rourke (D) vs. Cruz (R) (538: likely R)
WV: Manchin (D) vs. Morrisey (R) (538: likely D)

GOVERNORS (lean/likely/toss-up)
AK: Begich (D) vs. Dunleavy (R) (538: lean R)
CO: Polis (D) vs. Stapleton (R) (538: likely D)
CT: Lamont (D) vs. Stefanowski (R) (538: likely D)
FL: Gillum (D) vs. DeSantis (R) (538: likely D)
GA: Abrams (D) vs. Kemp (R) (538: lean R)
IL: Pritzker (D) vs. Rauner (R) (538: likely D)
IA: Hubbell (D) vs. Reynolds (R) (538: toss-up)
KS: Kelly (D) vs. Kobach (R) (538: toss-up)
ME: Mills (D) vs. Moody (R) (538: likely D)
MI: Whitmer (D) vs. Schuette (R) (538: likely D)
MN: Walz (D) vs. Johnson (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Sisolak (D) vs. Laxalt (R) (538: toss-up)
NH: Kelly (D) vs. Sununu (R) (538: likely R)
NM: Grisham (D) vs. Pearce (R) (538: likely D)
OH: Cordray (D) vs. DeWine (R) (538: toss-up)
OK: Edmondson (D) vs. Stitt (R) (538: likely R)
OR: Brown (D) vs. Buehler (D) (538: likely D)
SD: Sutton (D) vs. Noem (R) (538: lean R)
VT: Hallquist (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: likely R)
WI: Evers (D) vs. Walker (R) (538: lean D)

Scoring:
House: 50 points if exactly right, minus 5 points for each house seat off
Senate: 3 points per correct prediction
Governor: 2 points per correct prediction
* Double score for toss-ups. Triple score if you go against a "likely" and get it right. ;)

Based on recounts and runoffs and whatever, I may not score this until 2019. :D

The Great Zo 11-05-2018 05:19 PM

House:
D+32

Senate:
Sinema
Nelson
Donnelly
Smith
Hawley
Hyde-Smith
Tester
Cramer
Menendez
Rosen
Blackburn
Cruz
Manchin

Governor:
Begich
Polis
Lamont
Gillum
Kemp
Pritzker
Reynolds
Kelly
Mills
Whitmer
Walz
Sisolak
Sununu
Grisham
Cordray
Stitt
Borwn
Noem
Scott
Evers

jdhebner 11-05-2018 05:26 PM

b]House:[/b]
D+29

Senate:
Sinema
Nelson
Donnelly
Smith
McCaskill
Hyde-Smith
Tester
Cramer
Menendez
Rosen
Blackburn
O'Rourke
Manchin

Governor:
Begich
Polis
Lamont
Gillum
Kemp
Pritzker
Reynolds
Kelly
Mills
Whitmer
Walz
Sisolak
Sununu
Grisham
Cordray
Stitt
Borwn
Noem
Hallquist
Evers

BurnTHalO 11-05-2018 06:16 PM

House + 24


US SENATE (lean/likely/toss-up)
AZ: Sinema (D) vs. McSally (R) (538: lean D)
FL: Nelson (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: lean D)
IN: Donnelly (D) vs. Braun (R) (538: lean D)
MN: Smith (D) vs. Housley (R) (538: likely D)
MO: McCaskill (D) vs. Hawley (R) (538: toss-up)
MS: Espy (D) vs. Hyde-Smith (R) (538: likely R)
MT: Tester (D) vs. Rosendale (R) (538: likely D)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs. Cramer (R) (538: lean R)
NJ: Menendez (D) vs. Hugin (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Rosen (D) vs. Heller (R) (538: toss-up)
TN: Bredesen (D) vs. Blackburn (R) (538: likely R)
TX: O'Rourke (D) vs. Cruz (R) (538: likely R)
WV: Manchin (D) vs. Morrisey (R) (538: likely D)

GOVERNORS (lean/likely/toss-up)
AK: Begich (D) vs. Dunleavy (R) (538: lean R)
CO: Polis (D) vs. Stapleton (R) (538: likely D)
CT: Lamont (D) vs. Stefanowski (R) (538: likely D)
FL: Gillum (D) vs. DeSantis (R) (538: likely D)
GA: Abrams (D) vs. Kemp (R) (538: lean R)
IL: Pritzker (D) vs. Rauner (R) (538: likely D)
IA: Hubbell (D) vs. Reynolds (R) (538: toss-up)
KS: Kelly (D) vs. Kobach (R) (538: toss-up)
ME: Mills (D) vs. Moody (R) (538: likely D)
MI: Whitmer (D) vs. Schuette (R) (538: likely D)
MN: Walz (D) vs. Johnson (R) (538: likely D)
NV: Sisolak (D) vs. Laxalt (R) (538: toss-up)
NH: Kelly (D) vs. Sununu (R) (538: likely R)
NM: Grisham (D) vs. Pearce (R) (538: likely D)
OH: Cordray (D) vs. DeWine (R) (538: toss-up)
OK: Edmondson (D) vs. Stitt (R) (538: likely R)
OR: Brown (D) vs. Buehler (D) (538: likely D)
SD: Sutton (D) vs. Noem (R) (538: lean R)
VT: Hallquist (D) vs. Scott (R) (538: likely R)
WI: Evers (D) vs. Walker (R) (538: lean D)

pete 11-05-2018 06:33 PM

House
D+41

Rationale: Nate Silver said he believes the 538 Deluxe model is probably the closest to what will actually happen on election night. It predicts a +36 seat gain for Democrats. However, it's also been said that for every 1% the Democrats overperform the national popular vote estimate they'll pick up another ~5 seats. Hence, 41.

US Senate
AZ: McSally (one of the biggest disappointments of the night)
FL: Nelson (Bill Nelson slips the noose yet again)
IN: Donnelly
MN: Smith
MO: McCaskill (another survivor that slips the noose yet again)
MS: Going to a Run-Off
MT: Tester
ND: Cramer
NJ: Menendez
NV: Rosen (the Reid machine pulls her over the finish line)
TN: Blackburn (will be closer than anyone thinks)
TX: Cruz (will be razor-thin close)
WV: Manchin

At the end of the night it nets out to no change. 51R/49D.

Most stunning part of the above list may be the names that aren't on it. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin walk to re-election when a year ago that was not an outcome anyone would've bet on.

Governor's Mansions
AK: Begich (upset special)
CO: Polis
CT: Lamont (barely)
FL: Gillum
GA: Going to a Run-Off
IL: Pritzker
IA: Hubbell
KS: Kobach (cheats to win)
ME: Mills
MI: Whitmer
MN: Walz
NV: Sisolak (as with Rosen, the Reid machine pulls him over the line)
NH: Sununu
NM: Lujan-Grisham
OH: Cordray
OK: Stitt
OR: Brown
SD: Noem
VT: Scott
WI: Evers (eat it, Scott Walker)

Democrats gain 10 governor's mansions in a pretty stunning wipeout.

And then Jeff Sessions and Rod Rosenstein get fired on Friday...

pete 11-05-2018 07:03 PM

And for the record, I'm just excited to have the chance to compete for the coveted Kazakhstan Union of Journalist's Political Pundit's Cup.

Flycoon 11-05-2018 07:20 PM

US HOUSE
* Currently 193D-235R (R+42) with 7 vacant seats
* Democrats need a gain of 23 seats to get the majority
* Predict the D gain

D gain 29

US SENATE (lean/likely/toss-up)
AZ: McSally (R) (538: lean D)
FL: Scott (R) (538: lean D)
IN: Donnelly (D) (538: lean D)
MN: Smith (D) (538: likely D)
MO: McCaskill (D) (538: toss-up)
MS: Hyde-Smith (R) (538: likely R)
MT: Tester (D)(538: likely D)
ND: Cramer (R) (538: lean R)
NJ: Menendez (D)(538: likely D)
NV: Heller (R) (538: toss-up)
TN: Blackburn (R) (538: likely R)
TX: Cruz (R) (538: likely R)
WV: Manchin (D) (538: likely D)

GOVERNORS (lean/likely/toss-up)
AK: Begich (D) (538: lean R)
CO: Polis (D) (538: likely D)
CT: Lamont (D) (538: likely D)
FL: DeSantis (R) (538: likely D)
GA: Kemp (R) (538: lean R)
IL: Pritzker (D) (538: likely D)
IA: Reynolds (R) (538: toss-up)
KS: Kobach (R) (538: toss-up)
ME: Mills (D) (538: likely D)
MI: Whitmer (D) (538: likely D)
MN: Walz (D)(538: likely D)
NV: Laxalt (R) (538: toss-up)
NH: Sununu (R) (538: likely R)
NM: Grisham (D) (538: likely D)
OH: Cordray (D) (538: toss-up)
OK: Stitt (R) (538: likely R)
OR: Brown (D) (538: likely D)
SD: Noem (R) (538: lean R)
VT: Hallquist (D) (538: likely R)
WI: Evers (D)(538: lean D)

BurnTHalO 11-05-2018 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete (Post 234035)
And for the record, I'm just excited to have the chance to compete for the coveted Kazakhstan Union of Journalist's Political Pundit's Cup.

Oh God can we please make this the official trophy title?

The Great Zo 11-05-2018 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BurnTHalO (Post 234037)
Oh God can we please make this the official trophy title?

Well, Rick Scott Cup was already taken, so...

pete 11-05-2018 08:46 PM

There are other great trophies... the Stanley Cup, the Lombardi Trophy, the World Cup, even The Holy Grail. But none matches the prestige and grandeur of the Kazakhstan Union of Journalist's Political Pundit's Cup. Feast your eyes upon it:


Game on, BP. Game on.


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