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Donnie D 11-02-2016 06:56 AM

Real clear politics has it 273-265 Clinton on their no toss up map.

pete 11-02-2016 07:59 AM

John Harwood of CNBC canvasses a Republican, Democratic, and independent pollster.

So the Republican says he's seeing a 5% Clinton lead, the Democrat estimates a 2-6% Democratic lead, and the independent pollster has a 6% Clinton lead. 538 estimates a 3.9% win for Clinton right now.

pete 11-02-2016 08:06 AM

Video just surfaced of Trump hanging out with a mobster he claimed he didn't know. Not like it matters, unless it's an avi in an email.

Flycoon 11-02-2016 12:26 PM

It appears that James Comey wants to be as well known as J Edgar.

Donnie D 11-02-2016 01:14 PM

538 now places Clintons odds at less than 70% - down from over 90% a week and a half ago.

Reassurance that its going to be all right please.

pete 11-02-2016 01:23 PM

Mixed reaction but mostly relief for Democrats in the two big swing state polls out today. These were two very well-respected public polling firms within the states they were looking at, and if they showed Trump in the lead it would've been freak out time for the Democrats.

In Pennsylvania, Monmouth has Clinton up 4% in their final poll of the state. That matches the 4% edge from today's CNN/ORC poll, so it seems stout. Clinton's lead shrank by 6% in the poll, but it should be noted this poll was taken at "Peak Comey," so reality may be she leaked a couple of percentage points she'll get back. That poll also show Democrat Katy McGinty up 3% in the Senate race over incumbent Pat Toomey. Toomey hasn't led a poll in that race in a little while and it's looking like there will be a Democratic pickup there.

The grand daddy that just came out at 1:30 was Marquette Law School's poll of Wisconsin. It shows Clinton leading Wisconsin by 6%. That's an improvement of just 1% by Trump and it was taken at "Peak Comey," so even that gain may be illusory. Much worse number for the Democrats in the Senate race where good guy Russ Feingold leads uber-scumbag Ron Johnson by just 1%. In fairness, that's just 1% down from his 2% lead in Marquette's poll in October.

So, interesting part of the Marquette poll is they Tweeted out their daily results so we can measure the impact of peak Comey:

Wednesday through Thursday: Clinton +11%
Friday (Comey Story Hits in the AM): Trump +8%
Saturday through Monday: Clinton +6%

Trump's gain in support primarily came from his base (including Republican leaning Independents) being rallied to support him by Comey's letter. So, now we have some metrics about this particular October Surprise. Even with this coming up, only 81% of Republicans are solidly behind Trump in Wisconsin, which is 8% behind Hillary.

Clinton leads early voting 64% to 25% and Feingold leads early voting 58% to 29%, so even where Trump and the GOP have parity in the number of field offices they're getting smoked in early voting.

With Wisconsin locked down, I feel a lot better that Trump just is going to run out of track in the Electoral College. He's also probing behind Hillary's lines in MI and NM, where there's been a paucity of public polling, but those seem like tough sledding too demographically. Wisconsin seems a lot better built for an upset.

The Senate is in a little more dicey state. Democrats have the Illinois seat wrapped up as a pickup. It also is looking at this hour like they have the Pennsylvania seat wrapped up as a pickup, too. They need 3 more out of (in order of likelihood, IMO) WI, NH, NV, MO, NC, and IN to take the Senate. From what I've read, the IN and MO races are going in opposite directions with IN going in the crapper with Bayh getting killed for becoming a lobbyist after leaving the Senate and Kander taking Blunt to the woodshed on his ties to special interests. Were I a betting man, Democrats win WI, NH, NV, and MO. They flame out in IN. NC is a 50/50 proposition. I wouldn't bet money there, because I believe Hillary and her ground game has the coat tails to pull Ross over the finish line in NC, but I'm not ready to commit money to that.

They would have 50-51 seats in that scenario, which coupled with a Clinton win means they'll control the Senate and can push through Supreme Court nominations.

Anyway, I feel like the Clinton campaign finally got the breaking thrusters to fire on Trump's momentum and we're starting to see things plateau into a 3-4% win for Clinton on election day, 300+ EV's, and 50-51 seats in the Senate. Mind you, if Clinton drops their own October surprise on Friday (you know the one) the apple cart gets upset in Clinton's favor going into next Tuesday.

pete 11-02-2016 01:32 PM


Reassurance that its going to be all right please.
See my post above. We're ok. I had my freak out the past couple of days but I believe we're starting to see things settle down now. It might still get a little tighter (like another 0.5% or so in popular vote margin), but it's starting to level out IMO.

Other reasons to be confident: other than OH and IA Democrats seem to be beating Republicans at the ground game in early turnout. That's not surprising considering they invested in it while Trump embezzled campaign funds into his own businesses and stopped fundraising for the national party. Man are they (the GOP establishment) going to be pissed when they realize this race might have been winnable if he hadn't. Clinton probably wins FL and NC, in particular, on the strength of her ground game.

And lastly, public pollsters struggle to quantify Spanish-only voters in places like Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona. There might be a lot of Clinton votes you're not seeing in public data from those three states in particular.

Also, if the October Surprise (you know the one) happens on Friday, it'll probably help the sluggish turnout I'm expecting among African Americans and young voters.

Flycoon 11-02-2016 01:49 PM


Originally Posted by Donnie D (Post 204567)
538 now places Clintons odds at less than 70% - down from over 90% a week and a half ago.

Reassurance that its going to be all right please.

No can do. I'm nervous too.

ZeykShade 11-02-2016 04:10 PM

Love the Podesta Emails with the Clinton Camp and the DNC from WAY back before anyone was running. "Have Debbie meet with the other candidates just so it appears as if the DNC is giving them a fair shake." was the jist of it.

This was before anyone declared or announced they weren't running. Joe Biden was contemplating running at the time. The fix was in as far as the DNC and Clinton were concerned as far back as 2012 apparently. They decided that it was just her turn because she got smoked by a phenomenon called Obama in '08. That's power.

Makes what Bernie did all the more impressive imo. Nowhere near the machine or power or money or organization and still won 46% of the vote and still would beat trump 51-38 in recent polling, hehe.

pete 11-02-2016 04:10 PM

Quinnipiac, which has leaned Republican all cycle by 1% per 538, has Clinton +3% in North Carolina, Clinton +5% in Pennsylvania, and Clinton +1% in Florida. Trump +5% in Ohio (which along with Iowa looks done).

Remember, Clinton could still win without FL and NC, but if she gets just one of them Trump is likely screwed (definitely screwed if FL goes to Clinton).

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