Islanders: Matt Duchene

[ThorBolt]

http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/hockey/islanders/blog/2009/06/greg_logans_prediction_matt_du.html

The local beat writer for the Islanders is strongly implying that the Islanders are going to take Duchene.

I don't think the Islanders are putting up a smokescreen. I believe their interest in Brampton center Matt Duchene is real.

Suddenly, Duchene's comparables became "Steve Yzerman" and "Joe Sakic." While the critiques of Tavares focus on his one-dimensional play and less than stellar skating ability, Duchene now is portrayed as the "most complete" player in the draft. He has the speed to excel in coach Scott Gordon's system, as well as the playmaking ability. He figures to be a top penalty killer, and he's a leader in the locker room.

He (Tavares) always is going to score a lot of goals, but you don't really hear him described as a "winner." Meanwhile, Duchene is drawing raves and gaining support.

True or not - this is big food for thought.

[pete]

I don't think it changes what the Lightning will do. Left to my own devices, I might take Tavares, but I doubt that Lawton and company will pick him if Hedman's still available.

[aapbolt]

I wonder if the Avs would want to jump to #2 swap picks and give us another choice in the draft and they can have Tavares? or they give up a choice for our agreement not to choose Tavares.

[Avery86]

I still think it's suicide for the Islanders to pass on Tavares. How many people bought tickets for the upcoming season because the team secured the #1 pick and are in prime position to pick a goal scoring phenom?

[Sotnos]

I still think it's suicide for the Islanders to pass on Tavares. How many people bought tickets for the upcoming season because the team secured the #1 pick and are in prime position to pick a goal scoring phenom?
Yep, and spitting on the fans they have left is not a good move right now.

Not sure how much I buy this, but I guess you never know.

[timothy]

I still think it's suicide for the Islanders to pass on Tavares. How many people bought tickets for the upcoming season because the team secured the #1 pick and are in prime position to pick a goal scoring phenom?

One of the local NY newspapers had a online poll about which player the fans thought the NYI should select and Tavares had ~85% of the votes. Not sure Duchene had even 1% of the votes.

If Snow selects Duchene with the #1, it would be one insane pick. If they intend to pick Duchene, they should just trade down with COL and pick him at #3 and grab an extra player/picks.

Yeah... I just don't see it.

[RSchmitz]

That changes things a bit

[CTLightning26]

I really think Snow is getting all this misinformation out to cause the drama, then he steps to the microphone and the people at the Nassau Coliseum go crazy as he says John Tavares...
--
word is the Isles want to trade up to 16 with Coilumbus, dangling the 26th and 37th
i guess to take a Rundblad, Moore, Kulikov, Ellis, Ekman-Larsson if they are still there.

[Wrong Net Paulie]

Isn't Snow a bit notorious for taking a reach on certain guys?

[RSchmitz]

He took a reach on Bailey last season...but taking Duchene over Hedman/Tavares takes balls as big as a house

[Wrong Net Paulie]

He took a reach on Bailey last season...but taking Duchene over Hedman/Tavares takes balls as big as a house

Either way it shouldn't change our decisions. Its not often a fleet footed 6'6 franchise d-man comes along. You get him and keep him.

[Avery86]

He took a reach on Bailey last season...but taking Duchene over Hedman/Tavares takes balls as big as a house

Or as big as Alex Kharitonov's.

[Kowalski]

Agreed. Still no question you take Hedman. There will be talented offensive players available in the top 10 next year, where we more than likely will be picking. Get the stud defenseman this year, and don't second guess yourself.

[timothy]

Here's a COL blog (http://cfbhockey.blogspot.com/2009/06/entry-draft-rumblings.html) suggesting that COL *really* wants Matt Duchene and might be willing to swap picks with TAM to insure they get their man:


Colorado wants Matt Duchene. There is no question about it. A player is believed to be the next Joe Sakic and Colorado is the team that wants to try and have "the next Joe Sakic" play a season with "Joe Sakic", but it might cost their team. The Lightning know the Avalanche are interested in this youngster, so they want to force the Avs hand a little. They'll likely swap picks, 2nd and 3rd, and could involve also swapping players up front. It's believed the Avs would send their 3rd pick and Marek Svatos to the Lightning for the 2nd overall pick and Steve Downie.


Personally, I don't understand why COL would pull this this deal. In the off-chance TAM takes Duchene with the #2, COL would still be getting either Hedman or Tavares (depending on who NYI took). Not exactly chump change.

[RSchmitz]

Agreed. Still no question you take Hedman. There will be talented offensive players available in the top 10 next year, where we more than likely will be picking. Get the stud defenseman this year, and don't second guess yourself.

I think people are overplaying how much we need Hedman.

[CTLightning26]

I think people are overplaying how much we need Hedman.

what?

[Sotnos]

I think people are overplaying how much we need Hedman.
Just one person really :p

[chad]

I'm not sure the Lightning would be dealing off Downie so quickly either, but then again, that is the Cowboy M.O.

[timothy]

I'm not sure the Lightning would be dealing off Downie so quickly either, but then again, that is the Cowboy M.O.

I don't want to give too much credence to this kind of speculation, but hypothetically speaking... as much as I like Downie -- if COL offers Svatos in exchange for Downie as payment to swap picks, I think I might have to take that deal. Svatos is a legit Top 6 winger in Tampa, and gives the organization some real leverage to deal off Prospal or push him down to the 3rd line.

Understand that this opportunity from COL *only* really presents itself if NYI peels off Victor Hedman as the #1, and then COL gets scared that TAM will take Duchene ahead of Tavares. A deal to swap picks in this scenario leaves the Lightning looking at:

Malone - Stamkos - St. Louis
Tavares - Lecavalier - Svatos
Prospal - Halpern - Karsums
Hall - Szczechura - Artyukhin

And... if you can find someone at the draft to unload Prospal's contract onto for a couple of Top 60 picks, you'd ideally have enough budget to make a run at Komiserek or someone like that during free agency (since NYI took Hedman).

But... just hypothetically speaking...

[aapbolt]

I like your hypothetical Tim. It might make sense if the Bolts are having a serious discussion about Duchenne, and Col. really wants him. they could offer to switch or send Svatos to us prior to us taking our choice. We might then be able to send Prospal to the Hawks who are looking for second/3rd line scoring help and who might be willing to part with their #1 for Prospal and maybe Craig.Even if we get Hedman instead of Tavares getting a guy like Svatos would give us more speed on Vinny's line. either way Lawton needs to start referring to Hedman and duchenne together which might give Colorado some headaches.

[timothy]

Even if we get Hedman instead of Tavares getting a guy like Svatos would give us more speed on Vinny's line. either way Lawton needs to start referring to Hedman and duchenne together which might give Colorado some headaches.

If NYI takes Tavares, then I think COL rolls the dice and lets TAM pick #2 gambling that they would take the blueliner that the organization needs most. And IMO that's not much of a gamble at all. And if I'm the COL GM, then any posturing from Lawton on DucheneOrHedman would be viewed as just grandstanding and I wouldn't give up an roster player just to be 100% sure instead of 98.5% sure. The parting gift in that scenario is that Victor Hedman falls in COL's lap -- not a bad consolation prize.

The only other reason to swap Svatos for Downie from COL's perspective is if they really *hate* Svatos and his $2.3M 2009 salary and he's become the Avs version of Jussi Jokinen -- i.e. how can we possibly deal off this guy and get any kind of return value...

But Chad or KyleFredrich can probably gives us the *real* lowdown on Svatos' expected value to the Bolts...

[chad]

For this system... I don't think the difference is that great and I'm not sure how much of a fit he is. Svatos is soft and can't stay healthy. He's also extremely streaky. He didn't do well last year (14 goals), has been declining his last two years, and he and Vrbata may take turns being candidates for the popcorn machine under Tocchet should one or both slump (again). I think Toc could handle one of those players, but maybe not two.

Granted there isn't much to insert in the top-6 without someone like Svatos.

I know Svatos is a former 30+ goal scorer and Downie has done little in the league, but I think I may rather have a prospect or pick instead of Svatos and sending away Downie.

Is it possible COL jumps up anyway just in case TB changes their minds and goes with Duchene? Could Lawton at least play it that way to get an extra pick out of COL with no player swap?

[CTLightning26]

Again, i expect Vrbata to stay in Europe.
Svatos for Downie is interesting...Maybe with a change of scenery and some prodding from Tocchet and Walz and maybe Dineen, Svatos could be the winger Vinny4 needs.

[pete]

Svatos is a legit Top 6 winger in Tampa

Svatos gets hurt if you look at him the wrong way, though.

[aapbolt]

thanks for the analysis guys.The best approach may be to try and get a late round pick rather than take Svatos unless the Avs have someone in their system who would be a better fit.

[timothy]

Svatos gets hurt if you look at him the wrong way, though.

The supposed alternative in this trade scenario is that Downie gets lengthy suspensions when you look at him the wrong way. So is there really any difference in net NHL games played per season whether you are carrying Svatos or Downie?

[WaiverWire]

I don't know as the spot we need the most help is the "D", and Hedman would be the type of pick that could be your corner stone for years to come.
And we all know that this type of defenseman just does not come around that often.


Then you have the possiblity of a Vinny trade. If the trade is done correctly it could set this team for years to come. We could even be saying that Vinny's leaving was what saved this team. Who knows maybe a 3 way deal could be set where we keep the #2, acquire the #3 and get a very good player and a prospect in return.

[bassassin]

The supposed alternative in this trade scenario is that Downie gets lengthy suspensions when you look at him the wrong way. So is there really any difference in net NHL games played per season whether you are carrying Svatos or Downie?

I dont think that is a fair comment about Downie, with the Lightning in the NHL has he been anything but professional? I mean he worked hard, he showed chemistry with Stamkos and a willingness to stand up for him against much bigger players (Byfuglien comes to mind), some scoring/playmaking/general skill. And most importantly the ability to play in the NHL on a regular basis, if only at the minute (or as of last season) on the lower lines.

So yes I think there is a big difference. While Downie isnt YET a legit top 6 player, he could well become one, and be much more valuable than Svatos.

[timothy]

I dont think that is a fair comment about Downie, with the Lightning in the NHL has he been anything but professional?

That's not what I meant by that comment. If you think Artyukhin has a reputation with the referees, wait until you get to know Steve Downie. I think Downie has conducted himself professionally with the the Lightning, but the fact of the matter is that he is going to get suspensions by the league that he does not deserve because of the reputation he has. He 20 game AHL suspension to end the season was a prime example of this.

The argument Pete made is why would you trade Downie for a Svatos who has a history of injuries (meaning he likely won't play a full 82 game season). A legitimate argument. However, I also think one could argue why keep a Steve Downie who has a history of recurring suspensions (meaning he likely won't play a full 82 game season). Perhaps it's a wash...

[RSchmitz]

what?

I would be satisfied with anybody we pick. The most important need on the team is to get a #1 defenseman to take pressure off the young defensemen we already have. Hedman doesn't do that, at least for a couple of years.

[RSchmitz]

thanks for the analysis guys.The best approach may be to try and get a late round pick rather than take Svatos unless the Avs have someone in their system who would be a better fit.

Yeah, I'd rather have Downie than Svatos.

Perhaps something could be done where the Lightning swap #2 and #52 for #3 and #33